The global economy continues to recover, the shock from the pandemic crisis “is easing”, but at the same time “the risks remain high” and, in particular, concerns about inflation are gathering, which has not yet raised its head in everyone the countries. In an interim update of its Economic Outlook, the OECD substantially confirmed its global growth forecasts, while it revised upwards those for the euro area and, limited to 2021, for Italy.
Global GDP has now surpassed prepandemic levels, but delays in recovery and employment persist in many countries, the Parisian agency said. Now on 2021 it estimates global growth of 5.7%, 0.1 percentage points less than the forecasts of last May, while on 2022 it indicates a plus 4.5%, in this case revised upwards by 0.1 points.
On Italy, the OECD repeats the forecasts released last September 6 in the report on the country’s economy: plus 5.9% of GDP in 2021, revised upwards by 1.4 points compared to May, and plus 4.1% on 2022, in this case cut by 0.3 points. Finally, on the euro area, the OECD expects a plus 5.3% this year, a figure revised upwards by 1 percentage point, and a plus 4.6% the next, in this case the revision was 0, 2 points to the upside.
According to the chief economist of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, Laurence Boone, “the shock is easing”, but “the risks remain high,” he said in the press conference of the report. Above all, it has placed emphasis on the rapid increase in demand and the risk of putting prices and global supply chains under even more pressure, where there has already been a spike in freight costs.
Boone cited the average cost of transporting a container from China to the east coast of the US: “it went from $ 3,000 – he said – to over $ 20,000.” According to the OECD, increases in raw materials and international transport costs are adding around 1.5 percentage points to current levels of inflation in the G20 countries.
OECD Secretary General Mathias Cormann repeated the mantra on the need to proceed with anti-Covid vaccinations. Aid to the economy must continue as long as uncertainty persists and until employment levels have recovered. Central banks must maintain accommodative monetary policies, but according to the OECD now “clear indications are needed on the timing and scope within which inflationary excesses will be tolerated.”
(with source Askanews)
Source: RSS DiariodelWeb.it Economia by www.diariodelweb.it.
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