The housing market is certainly strengthening: according to Duna House’s recent Monthly Transaction Number Estimate (DH-TB) and mortgage loan forecast, 11,807 real estate sales and transactions took place nationwide in September 2021, and a HUF 125 billion contracted residential mortgage loan was realized.
The residential real estate market continued to recover in September – albeit moderately. Duna House estimates that 11,807 transactions were realized in the first month of the autumn, which is lower than in September of the previous years, but shows an increase of 4.5% compared to August.
Thus, active summer rest is still having its effect, which is mainly observed in the quarterly data. Between July and September this year, a total of 34,296 transactions took place nationwide, a lag of 10% from the same period in 2019 and 9% from 2020. On an annual basis, however, it is still 20% more than this year’s market compared to last year. Given the active autumn market, the Duna House It expects a 15% increase compared to 2020, so the number of transactions could be around 150,000.
The summer period had only a shorter and lesser impact on the residential mortgage market than on real estate. According to the estimate of Duna House Finances, a HUF 125 billion mortgage loan was realized in Hungary in September, which is the third strongest month so far this year. Compared to last year, this is more than 65% higher volume, and credit market activity is mainly due to new home-building subsidies. On a quarterly basis – based on the MNB’s factual data for July and August and Duna House Finance’s September estimate – the mortgage market set a new record: Hungarians took out more than HUF 375 billion in 3 months, which may increase further by the end of 2021 due to new green loan opportunities .
The table below shows the monthly transaction volumes estimated by Duna House for the current month.
As a reminder, the DH-TB methodology: The most important indicator of the development of the real estate market at any given time is the annual number of sale and purchase transactions. DHTB is an estimate issued by Duna House (DH) that provides mid-year, approximate data. The estimate is based on the monthly number of real estate transactions brokered by DH and DH’s estimated market share. The following indicators are used to estimate DH’s current monthly market share: 1. Data published by the CSO on transactions between individuals. Since the CSO publishes with a delay of several months, it is possible to adjust the market share retrospectively, which also clarifies the current estimate.
Attention! From 2016, with the recovery of the newly built market, pre-contracted housing purchases will appear in the CSO’s statistics only with a delay of several months, even 1-2 years, after the imposition of the property acquisition tax, so there may be anomalies in the interpretation of transaction numbers. 2. Number of Energy Certificates issued. 3. Subjective evaluation based on other management information from the Duna House group of companies.
Source: Ingatlanhírek by ingatlanhirek.hu.
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