Winter is coming in the economy and Germany gives Feijóo a boost

As the motto of the house says Stark in ‘Game of Thrones’winter is approaching and threatens to be catastrophic for the economy Spanish. Until the BCE already recognizes the risk of recession and even from stagflation: the combination of falling GDP and high inflation, the worst possible scenario. Before the one that comes upon us, Germany is taking coherent measures that represent a boost for feijóo because they coincide with the ones he proposes. And while, Pedro Sanchez playing the violin and obsessed with it air-conditioning.

The recession has been reported for a long time by study services such as those of the College of Economists, Mapfre or the BBVAdue to the collapse of the confidence of families and companies, inflation and the rise in interest rates (not counting the credit restriction for the bank tax). But if now it is the entire euro zone that goes into contraction, things are going to get much uglier here. As has always been said, when Germany sneezes, Spain catches pneumonia.

Headquarters of the ECB in Frankfurt.

All agencies expect a mild recession, which would have the beneficial effect of moderating inflation. Eye, that does not mean that the prices go down, but go up less than they do now; but the high that we have gotten between chest and back we stay with him. Going back to the moderate recession: although that may be the central scenario, there is a high probability that it will be much more serious if, as everyone fears, Putin completely close the faucet gas to Europe to force us to accept a peace in Ukraine beneficial for Russia.

Germany pulls up

This possibility is what has prompted Brussels to demand from the States plans for energy saving, which is what Sánchez has translated into his unbelievable decree. Something that will be totally insufficient if the Russian tsar does his thing. In that case, we will surely have a high of the precio of the gas and, most likely, supply cuts to send the gas to the central countries of Europe (where they will not have enough supply in winter).

Faced with such a serious risk, a serious country like Germany is preparing with much more forceful measures than turning off public buildings or turning up the air conditioning. So what Olaf Scholz es social democratfortunately in coalition with the liberals; and eye, also with the verdes, but there the left has a sense of state, not like here. On the energy side, it is lengthening the life of nuclear and has burned again Coalwhich is what pollutes the most to reduce its dependence on Russian gas (dependence that must be noted in the debt to the conservative Angela Merkelprobably his biggest mistake).

Olaf Scholz, German canciller (AFP).

But his measures go further. Since, in the end, all this affects the citizen’s pocket, what he has adopted is a general reduction in taxes. This week has reduced IVA of gas to 7%, compared to 21% in Spain, where the Government insists that it cannot be done because Brussels does not know what (it is true that it has also imposed a surcharge on the industry for the price increase, but the VAT reduction compensates it with profit). And last time, he announced a drop in income tax of 10,000 million, with special incidence on the lowest incomes, which are the ones that suffer the most from inflation (the “tax on the poor”).

And not only that, but it has approved a 27,500 million aid plan for industry to compensate for the rise in energy and prevent companies from relocating to other countries with more affordable prices and less climate costs. Come on, the same as here with Alcoafor example.

Who put the bell to the cat?

These measures, especially the tax cuts, represent a boost for the fiscal plan of the leader of the PPwho has also asked to reduce the taxes of the luz and gas, deflate income tax with inflation -Sánchez refuses despite the fact that it is a drain for the citizen not to do it with a CPI of 10.8%-, lowering it to the lowest incomes is even a negative tax (an aid) for those who are not obliged to declare. Feijóo himself has already rushed to remind Sánchezalbeit with predictable success.

Obviously, Germany has much more room than Spain to lower taxes and give aid, since it does not have a deficit runaway for not having reduced the spent neither before nor after pandemic. There is the lamb’s mother. In the refusal of this Government (taken by salvo is the part by Podemos, although it uses them as useful idiots as with the impuestazo a bank y energetic) to cut back on their immense useless spending and patronage in order to have the ability to help those who truly need it in a critical situation like the current one.

The European Comission and the BCE, after years tolerating what they should never have tolerated, they are beginning to get serious, but the Moncloa gambler hopes to be able to hold out until the elections (although he has to bring them forward if necessary) without making cuts. And then, if he loses them as everything indicates – don’t rule out surprises, as we have already warned you in this column -, whoever comes after him must herd.

And then Feijóo’s turn will come, who will have to dare what he did not dare Rajoy: to reduce public spending, including -note- the pensions. But hey, all of that is supposed to happen after this winter. You have to survive first. And it won’t be easy. Winter is coming.

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