which parties can agree and how they will redraw Catalan politics

BarcelonaThe unknown that will have to resolve in Barcelona from tonight it will not only be who holds the position of mayor or mayoress, but also with which pacts. The vetoes between the candidates make three-way deals particularly difficult, so what is most likely is a two-way pact, even if it falls short of a majority, which is the formula with which they have governed commons and the PSC the last legislatures. Broadly speaking, the polls draw four pact scenarios: common-PSC (or common PSC), joint PSC (or joint-PSC), joint-ERC and common-ERC. Right now the repetition of the current formula seems very difficult, especially if Ada Colau is the first, because Jaume Collboni has said that he will go to the opposition if he is not mayor and the bad relationship between the two is more than obvious. On the other hand, the other way around would no longer be so problematic because Colau would predictably leave the council and make the pact more digestible for the bases of the PSC. The continuity of this axis would not mean any great change in the Catalan political scene and would be the preferred option of Pedro Sánchez in Madrid, who will present himself in December forming a kind of informal ticket with Yolanda Díaz.

From there, any other scenario would shuffle the board. One possibility that is on the table is that of a Junts-PSC agreement like the one currently in place in the Diputació de Barcelona. This return to a certain socio-vergence would have a strong impact, especially in Junts, where it would predictably cause strong opposition from the sectors close to the current president of the formation, Laura Borràs, and would not please Carles Puigdemont either. For Salvador Illa’s PSC, it is a clearly preferable option to agreeing with the commons, both because of the programmatic coincidence between the two formations and to ensure the return of the formation founded by Puigdemont to the moderate path. And, in the background, there would be the shared goal of wearing down ERC and returning to the old two-party scheme. For the Republicans, in turn, this pact would leave them out of the municipal government, but it would serve to deactivate the irredeemable speech that Juntes now has in Parliament.

In the case of a pact between Ada Colau and ERC, the axis of Catalan politics would turn clearly to the left and strengthen the understanding between republicans and commons, who would form a kind of anti-establishment front against the front of order representing both Junts and the PSC. This alliance would further distance the republicans of Junts and the commons of the PSC, the two main dance partners of recent years, and would strengthen the more left-wing sectors of ERC as represented by figures such as Joan Tardà and Gabriel Rufián. Aragonés would continue to be in the minority in Parliament, but his loneliness would be less if he tied the support of the commons.

Independence Pact

Finally, there is the scenario of a Trias-Maragall pact to make the former mayor. This is the preferred option by the bases of both parties, who still prioritize the national over the ideological axis (especially in Junts). This scenario would mean the continuation of bloc politics, which seemed to be left behind, and the return of Junts to institutional politics leading an independence front. ERC, for its part, would have a lever in this scenario to put pressure on its former partner and make him return to the Government and day-to-day management. For the sectors of Junts that have sponsored the candidacy of Trias, it would be the way to show that the pragmatic way is the right one and that the priority must be to occupy the spheres of power without renouncing independence. In a way, it would represent the posthumous victory of those who voted against leaving the Government in the internal consultation.

This Sunday we will not yet know which axis prevails, but which ones have the best chance of succeeding.

More information about the municipal elections in Barcelona