Volatility, inflation, omicron – Hello, 2022
Several investment banks and analysts have already published their forecasts and market outlook for 2022.
In its forecast, ING draws attention to the following, among others:
- Inflation caused by reopening is replaced by persistent inflation, as a tight labor market increases labor costs, which companies can easily pass on to customers due to stable demand.
- Turning to the eurozone, it is written that the third vaccines could burst in the second half of the year and we can see a significant increase on an annual average. Inflation may be above the ECB’s target throughout the year, but by the end of 2022 it may fall below the central bank target again.
- Central and Eastern Europe also mentions in its forecast the ING, according to which the growth outlook is stable, but the growth prospects of our region depend very much on the situation of the supply chains, especially in the Czech Republic and Hungary, which have a high automotive weight, and the more diversified Poland is less affected. Record-breaking inflation at the same time, it is holding back real household income growth and consumption. Households in the region need to get used to high energy prices while central banks may tighten further. Interest rates could rise to 3-3.5% in the region this year or slightly higher.
- Inflation in the United States could remain above 3% in 2022. According to the Federal Reserve, inflation may decline in 2022, but this is not a realistic expectation, according to ING analysts, due to supply chains, labor shortages and the pricing power of companies. Both private and public investment could be strong, and strained efforts by companies to replenish inventories, among other factors, could bring growth in the country above 4%. Inflation could be similar, allowing the central bank to act quickly and vigorously: quantitative easing could end early and at least two interest rate hikes could come in 2022.
- From a Chinese perspective, one of the main stories is the growing role of state-owned enterprises will play in the investment. With investments, state-owned companies can be active primarily in infrastructure, renewable energy and technology. In addition, the central bank cannot be expected to relax, but if a more serious easing is possible, ING considers it more likely to reduce the reserve ratio than to cut the key interest rate.
- He also writes about yield levels in ING’s material. He notes that both US and eurozone ten-year bond yields have risen since the beginning of last year and could rise further this year: In 2022, the U.S. ten-year-old could reach 2% and the eurozone ten-year yield could be 0.5%. They also write about the outlook for the dollar, noting that uncertainties about the omicron have resulted in a weakening dollar, and that may remain so until early 2022. The bank, on the other hand, expects that the negative scenario for omicron will not materialize, which could lead to a further strengthening of the dollar next year.
|Exchange rate||1 nap||1 week||1 month||This year||One year||5 years|
|US stock indices|
|Dow Jones||36 398,08||-0,2%||1,2%||5,6%||18,9%||19,7%||84,2%|
|S&P 500||4 778,73||-0,3%||1,1%||4,6%||27,2%||28,0%||113,4%|
|Asian stock indices|
|Hang Seng||23 112,01||0,1%||-0,4%||-1,5%||-15,1%||-14,9%||5,1%|
|CSI 300||4 921,51||0,8%||-0,6%||1,9%||-5,6%||-3,8%||48,7%|
|European stock indices|
|FTSE MIB||27 346,83||0,0%||1,2%||5,9%||23,0%||23,0%||42,2%|
|Regional stock indices|
|Hungarian blue chips|
|Bitcoin||47 150,71||1,4%||-7,3%||-17,2%||60,4%||63,3%||4 813,9%|
|10-year US government bond yield||1,52||-1,8%||3,9%||6,3%||66,2%||63,6%||-38,1%|
|10-year German government bond yield||-0,17||-3,9%||-30,7%||-49,0%||-69,7%||-69,4%||-184,1%|
|10-year Hungarian government bond yield||4,58||5,0%||1,6%||3,9%||113,0%||113,0%||40,5%|
|Source: Refinitive, Portfolio|
Stock Markets – Caution is the motto
The big analytical houses agree that we are facing increased volatility in the stock markets this year amid the tightening of the US Federal Reserve. Some say the Fed will be more resilient in 2022 with possible rate hikes, which could mean more rate hikes this year in the face of rising inflationary pressures. And if the Fed becomes more aggressive with the tightening, it could put pressure on technology stocks as well as sectors that are more sensitive to interest rates.
From the content of the article:
- Volatilis 2022 needs to prepare for the investment market
- Instead of U.S. stocks, it might be worth winking elsewhere
- Due to rising yields, it does not hurt to be open to corporate bonds instead of government securities.
- There is still something to earn in the commodity markets, we will show you where.
- We also give a few tips for safety drivers.
Source: Portfolio.hu – Befektetés by www.portfolio.hu.
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