What is happening now to fuel prices, between the “new” excise duties and OPEC+

He was now a homebody. The discount of 30.5 cents/litre on price of petrol and diesel he had been living with us since March. But now we know that things will change on December 1st. The cut on fuel will be halved, going to 18.3 cents/litre, and the cost of a full tank will inevitably rise again.

At this point, motorists are wondering what the effects of this decision will be on their wallet. With a volatile market such as that of fuels, it is difficult to make exact forecasts, but we can look at the recent past and stretch our gaze to the immediate future to better understand what is happening.

Back to the past

According to the data of Energy newspaper – elaborated on the basis of the communications that the managers send every day to the Ministry of Enterprise and Made in Italy (Mimit) – today a refill of green costs on average 1.700 euros/litre for self-service and 1.850 euros/litre for served. Switching to diesel, on the other hand, 1.804 euros/litre are spent per self and 1.953 euros/litre per served. Now let’s imagine applying the new and less generous excise cut immediately. Things would change like this:

Supply/price Self today Served today Self recalculated Served recalculated
Gas 1,700 €/l 1,850 €/l 1,867 €/l 2,017 €/l
Diesel 1,804 €/l 1,953 €/l 1,971 €/l 2,210 €/l

These, however, are the prices of March 24, when the entry into force of the measure was also shown on the billboards of the fuel stations:

Supply/price Self Served
Gas 1,881 €/l 2,047 €/l
Diesel 1,862 €/l 2,032 €/l
As can be seen, the cost of petrol immediately after the 30.5 cent cut was not very different from the hypothetical one, recalculated to date with the new and weakened excise cut. Indeed, in this imaginative exercise, it can be said that we would be facing a substantial balance, given that, at the time of the first cut, prices were significantly higher than the current ones: in the previous days, green and diesel served were even reached 2.248 €/l and 2.235 €/l. However, the story is different for diesel, which has now permanently passed the green even at the pump.

The “no” of the managers

Meanwhile, immediately after the executive’s move, the reaction of Liver (Italian federation of fuel and similar managers), which does not appreciate the step backwards by Palazzo Chigi and launches an appeal for the Government to review its choiceespecially in the light of Christmas just around the corner.

“This is a clear strategic error – reads a note – both for the effect that this is destined to generate on the rise in the prices of all goods and, therefore, on the already significantly high inflation, and for the negative consequences on the propensity to consume, especially on the eve of the festive season ”.

“We still want to hope, and in this sense goes the pressing request of the category – is the conclusion -, that the Government in its collegiality will find alternative reasons and resources to rethink such an announced provision, before it becomes mandatory”.

How’s the oil?

But December will not only be the month of the “sconticino” (to be understood among other things if and how much will be maintained in this formula). In fact, the 5 will trigger the ban on imports of Russian oil into Europe and OPEC+ (the association of oil producers enlarged to Russia) will meet (coincidentally) the day before to decide the next steps.

However, according to the rumors of the Reuters, no big news is expected, with the parent company Saudi Arabia determined not to open the taps more to avoid a drop in crude oil prices. Therefore, the possible consequences of the summit on prices still need to be verified.

Today, however, Brent – the reference for oil in Europe – travels at 81 dollars a barrel, while WTI – the reference in America – is around 89 dollars a barrel.


Source: Motor1.com Italia – News by it.motor1.com.

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