It has never been like this before – it is a sentence that has been uttered more and more often in recent years when talking about weather conditions. Is the climate really changing so fast, what are the consequences and can people change and control the climate with the help of technology.
The climate has changed significantly in the past decades and the reason for that is man and the burning of large amounts of fossil fuels for energy production. The increasing release of carbon dioxide has made the greenhouse effect stronger and that is why we are recording the warming of the planet on all meridians.
Today, the planet is on average one degree warmer compared to the pre-industrial era from the end of the 19th century. This leads to various changes in the climate system, melting ice, rising ocean levels and other extreme weather conditions. That is why the winters in our country are getting milder, there is less and less snow.
It is estimated that in the next 30 years, carbon dioxide emissions will lead to an increase in the average temperature by at least one more degree, which will additionally affect climate change.
Climatologist Vladimir Đurđević points out that this does not mean that a binary scenario will happen, in which one day everything is fine, and the next day comes the day of judgment, but that we will slowly get used to what we previously called extreme weather conditions.
“The best example of that is summer. We are already used to the fact that summers in our country are tropical with a large number of days of over 35 degrees. That is why last summer, even though it was warmer than the average from the middle of the 20th century, seemed mild to us, because we are already used to extremely hot summers “, explains Đurđević.
On the other hand, natural disasters will become more frequent and devastating. We can expect more droughts, floods and storms.
Achieving the goal of the Paris Climate Agreement and curbing the rise in average temperature to 2 degrees above the pre-industrial period, seems a little more realistic now, because there were great shifts in that field last year.
“Apart from the EU, which has always been a leader in that field, China committed itself last year to completely stop using fossil fuels by 2060. Japan has also promised to be a green country by 2050. South Korea too. The new American president also promised that on the first day of his mandate, he would return the United States to the Paris Agreement, and the goal would be for the United States to stop using fossil fuels by 2050, “Đurđević points out.
China intends to improve the system of weather modification by 2025, ie to artificially cause snow or rain on 5.5 million square kilometers.
Djurdjevic thinks that it is very difficult to do at the moment.
“Although we know theoretically and on paper that it is possible to report, the atmosphere and climatic conditions are far more complex. In order to do something like that, we have to go to the finest details, which are almost impossible to calculate, because you have to change the atmospheric conditions in a certain area at a given moment, which is very difficult, “says the climatologist.
According to him, the technology of changing the time, as China intends to apply it, dates back to the 50s of the last century, and that is through the particles that start condensation before it would start naturally.
The atmosphere, he explains, has the property of dynamic systems called “deterministic chaos”. This means that it is predictable in one time window, and that is ten days in advance, and that is why we can predict and know what will happen with a certain certainty.
“After ten days, things become unpredictable. Thus, even on a small scale, a difference in temperature of 0.1 or 0.2 degrees can result in completely different results. That kind of unpredictability that the atmosphere brings is a big obstacle in controlling the weather “, points out Đurđević.
Chalk dust and Gates’ light-reflecting balloon
A very old idea and a natural solution that people are trying to simulate. When large volcanoes, such as Pinatub, erupt in 1992, large amounts of sulfur oxides are released into the stratosphere, where these particles can remain for a very long time and take on the properties of micro-mirrors that reflect solar radiation.
One of the ideas is for people to artificially insert those micro-mirrors into the atmosphere and in that way lower the temperature.
“People should not be afraid of that no matter how much the media tries to inflate the news. If we really get to a situation where that is the only way to stabilize the climate, then we will already be in big trouble. It is better to stick to what we know is possible, and that is to reduce carbon dioxide emissions and eliminate fossil fuels from use, “said Djurdjevic.
All scientists who deal with climate oppose the use of geoengineering, because we have already created one problem and now we are trying to solve the same problem with a new intervention.
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