We expect a rise in the price of sunflower: And oil will have a higher price around the world

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Sunflowers are grown on about 24 million hectares in the world and 31 million tons are produced on them. Most in Europe (65 percent), followed by Asia and South America. When we look at countries, it is mostly grown in Russia and Ukraine. A relatively small number of countries are engaged in intensive production of sunflower and sunflower oil, so trade is intensive.

In the world, over 70 types of oil are used for food, where sunflower is in the fourth place in terms of consumption (4.2 times less than palm oil, 3.8 times less than soybean and 1.9 times less than canolino, but also 3.5 times more than olive oil 2, 1). Regional specificists are very present in consumption.

In the world, trade is mostly done with crude and edible oil and sunflower. Crude oil is mostly traded, worth about three billion dollars a year. The value of the oil trade grew from 2005 to 2008, when it reached a record 4.7 billion dollars, but in 2009 it dropped sharply. The largest importers are Turkey, the Netherlands, France, Germany and Spain, and the exporters are Ukraine, Argentina, Russia and the Netherlands.

Growth of seed trade

The value of the sunflower seed trade has been steadily rising over the last five years. The record was the export in 2008, which amounted to 2.4 billion dollars. The largest importers are Turkey, the Netherlands, Germany, Spain and Italy, and the largest exporters are Bulgaria, France, the United States, Romania and Hungary. Similar to sunflower seeds, the edible oil trade has been growing slightly in the last five years, and 2008 was also a record year with exports of $ 2.6 billion, while exports averaged $ 1.7 billion.

The largest importers are Great Britain, Belgium and Germany, and the largest exporters are France, the Netherlands, Belgium, Ukraine and Hungary. In the European Union, sunflower is grown in fourteen countries. On average, 3.7 million hectares are sown and 6.3 million tons of sunflowers are collected from them.

The largest sunflower growers are France, Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania and Spain. The EU imports the most crude oil, followed by sunflower seeds and then edible oil. As for exporting images it is completely different. Sunflower seeds are mostly exported, followed by edible oil, and finally crude oil. The only positive balance is in the trade in edible oil. But when all the balances of trade in sunflower and sunflower oil are added up, the total balance is negative by an average of 860 million dollars a year.

The European Union mostly imports crude oil worth $ 600 million to $ 1.2 billion a year. It is mostly imported from Ukraine and Argentina. Exports of crude oil are in last place and there are no major oscillations in its exports in the last five years.

The oil will only get more expensive!

Sunflower is being sold these days at record prices of 470 to 473 euros per ton. That is 56 percent more than last year, 2020. The demand for sunflower on the Product Exchange Novi Sad is higher than the supply, and some traders are asking for 480 euros per ton. According to Miloš Janjić, director of the Product Exchange in Novi Sad, the current trend is that the price of sunflower is rising and it is not possible to predict in detail how it will move forward. Certainly, there is a greater chance that it will rise than fall. “There are sunflowers on offer and I don’t believe they will be cheaper. As sunflower is a basic commodity that enters production, it is realistic that oil prices may rise. The price is rising both in our country, and in the region and the world, “said Janjic.

Sunflower oil, on the retail market in Serbia, ranges from 135, which is a liter of private labels, to a maximum of 190 dinars for the most famous brands.

“According to that criterion, Serbia has competitive oil prices in the region, because, according to our analyzes, a liter of sunflower oil in Bulgaria, translated into our currency, ranges between 150 and 180, Croatia 190 and 250, Northern Macedonia 21 to 220 dinars.” In Hungary, it costs from 200 to 250 dinars, “Uros Kandic, State Secretary at the Ministry of Trade, told the public.

In the following period, the market price will be formed on the basis of movements on the world stock market of sunflower and crude oil. In that respect, the movement in the Black Sea region is a special reference for Serbia. Crude sunflower oil is currently traded in the Montenegrin region at the level of 1,300 to 1,330 dollars per ton, which is more favorable compared to the first half of the year when the oil was sold at 1,600 dollars per ton. Analysts point out that the current transactions are formed on the basis of the price of sunflower of the old genus. In that sense, at this moment, the most important fact is that the current price of a new kind of sunflower on the Product Exchange in Novi Sad is around 55 dinars per kilogram without VAT, and the last price was 480 euros per ton.

For the sake of comparison, in September 2020, after the harvest, sunflowers were bought for 36 dinars without VAT. The first sunflower was bought in 2021, and the price is 56 percent higher than in 2020! The relevant ministry does not expect any problems in the supply of the oil market. It is expected that after the harvest, which is in progress, we will have quite enough sunflowers for our own needs, but also for export. The Republic Directorate for Commodity Reserves has enough oil to intervene in case of any disruptions in the supply of the domestic market.


Source: Bolja Zemlja by www.boljazemlja.com.

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