This is shown by two new surveys by the University of Suffolk and Monmouth, published by USA Today and Politico.
Both polls show Biden would now be voted by 53 percent of Americans, while Trump is supported by 41 percent of respondents. According to both surveys, the biggest problem for the re-election of the current president is the number of people who do not want him to continue in the White House at any cost.
They record this dissatisfaction with Biden, who is not able to arouse such enthusiasm among his supporters as Trump. A survey by Suffolk University found that Trump would be “very enthusiastically” elected by about half of the supporters, with Biden about a quarter.
The authors of the survey asked voters to write a few words about why they support their favorites. At Trump, 20 percent of people mention economic considerations and employment, 13 percent of those surveyed believe they are doing well in office, and 12 percent agree with him in his political views. However, 44 percent of Biden’s supporters said they would vote for him out of displeasure with Trump. The second most common reason was the “need for change” mentioned by eight percent of respondents.
USA Today notes that all of these explanations are tied to Trump and his perceived qualities or shortcomings, and he doesn’t actually talk about Biden. According to the newspaper, the survey points out that Biden urgently needs to come up with a clear political agenda and arouse greater enthusiasm among democratic voters, including young people, in order to increase the chances of them actually coming to the polls. Crucial in this regard will be his selection of a candidate for vice president and his performance in the autumn election debates, writes the server of the newspaper.
However, according to the Politico server, it is still true that Trump lacks one major advantage from 2016 in this election, which was the reluctance of a large part of the electorate over the then Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton. According to a survey by Monmouth University The same number of respondents view Biden positively and unfavorably, at 44 percent. In this respect, Clinton showed a long-term negative balance, which Trump now has, with an unfavorable view of voters prevailing by 17 percentage points.
While both surveys discuss the national popularity of both candidates, The Economist in its electoral model, it focuses on their gains in the electorate, which better reflects the real chances of election success. In the United States, each state has a number of voters that corresponds to their representation in Congress. In most states, the candidate who gets the majority of the votes there gets all the voters there. A candidate with a smaller total number of votes in the entire USA can also become president, which Trump did four years ago, for example.
The Economist’s model, which takes into account national and local polls and economic data, now predicts that Biden will get 98 percent more votes than Trump and 89 percent will control the electorate, becoming the next president.