Ali Akbar YILDIRIM
The Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) recently announced the red meat production statistics on February 20, 2020. The last data published were for the 4th quarter of 2019, that is, for the period of October-December. At that time, red meat production in 2019 was announced as 1 million 201 thousand tons. With the last update, the production in 2019 was revised to 1 million 740 thousand tons.
When TURKSTAT announced the 2019 data on February 20, 2020, it made the following announcement: “The red meat production statistics, which are published quarterly, will be published annually due to the methodology change. In this context, the data for 2020 will be published in February 2021.”
Data could be released after 26 months
However, this statement could not be made in February 2021. The reason why it could not be explained was stated as follows in the announcement made by TÜİK: “Statistics on red meat production are produced and published by the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK) in a way to cover slaughterhouse and non-slaughterhouse segments. Studies on the development of the current methodology for red meat production continue. In this context, the “Red Meat Production Statistics, 2020” news bulletin, which was planned to be published on February 25, 2021 at 10:00 according to the National Data Release Calendar, has been postponed to a later date. The methodology document for the revision will also be included with the bulletin.
After more than 2 years (26 months) since the last data was announced, the red meat production data for 2020 and 2021 were finally announced as of 6 May 2022.
The method has changed, the production is based on 2 million tons
When the calculation method for red meat was changed, the production of 2021 reached the 2 million tons limit. According to the news bulletin published by TURKSTAT with the title “Red Meat Production Statistics, 2020-2021”, Turkey’s red meat production increased by 9.3 percent in 2021 to 1 million 952 thousand 38 tons.
The red meat production estimation is obtained by multiplying the “number of animals slaughtered from the domestic population” and the “number of animals slaughtered from imports” by the average carcass weights calculated with the “Butchery Power Ratio” determined based on the demographic data obtained from the Animal Production Research in Agricultural Enterprises. Accordingly, the red meat production, which was 1 million 785 thousand 952 tons in 2020, was estimated to be 1 million 952 thousand 38 tons in 2021 with an increase of 9.3 percent. In this context, beef production increased by 8.9% compared to the previous year to 1 million 460 thousand 719 tons, sheep meat production increased by 11.7 percent to 385 thousand 933 tons, goat meat production increased by 4.5 percent to 94 thousand 555 tons, buffalo meat production on the other hand, it increased by 28.6 percent and became 10 thousand 831 tons.”
Red meat production and exchange rates
According to TUIK data, when the red meat production estimates for the last 10 years are examined, while the total red meat production was 1 million 67 thousand 553 tons in 2012, it reached 1 million 952 thousand 38 tons in 2021. 74.8 percent of the total red meat production, which is estimated to be 1 million 952 thousand 38 tons for 2021, is made up of beef, 19.8 percent of mutton, 4.8 percent of goat meat and 0.6 percent of buffalo. formed the meat.
How realistic is the increase in production?
Former Minister of Agriculture and Forestry Bekir Pakdemirli stated in his speeches and television programs that Turkey no longer needs livestock and meat imports, and that red meat consumption decreased from 1 million 350 thousand tons to 950 thousand tons. It was estimated that red meat consumption decreased by 30 percent due to the decrease in the number of tourists during the pandemic period and the closure of out-of-home consumption places.
While it is stated that the breeders, who are in a very difficult situation due to the increasing feed prices, quit this job and that the fattening enterprises are working with 30-40 percent capacity, it is absolutely necessary to discuss how realistic the red meat production data announced is. On the other hand, if there is such a large amount of meat production, why meat prices have risen so much is a situation that needs to be emphasized. As with many data of TUIK, the data explained with the experiences do not overlap.
Major overhauls were made in production
Considering the data and explanations published by the Turkish Statistical Institute, it is seen that serious revisions have been made in the red meat production data since 2001. Red meat production, which was 435 thousand 778 tons in 2001, which was considered the beginning, was revised to 783 thousand 341 tons with an increase of 79.8 percent. The highest revision was made for 2003. While Turkey’s red meat production in 2003 was announced as 366 thousand 962 tons, this production was revised to 755 thousand 880 tons with an increase of 106 percent with the new revision. Red meat production, which was 412 thousand 621 tons in 2009, was updated to 846 thousand 939 tons with a 105 percent update.
The lowest revision in the amount of production belongs to 2015. Production, which was 1 million 149 thousand tons in 2015, was increased to 1 million 187 thousand tons with a 3.3 percent revision. 2018 and 2019 production were revised with an increase of 48.5 percent and 44.9 percent. The average absolute revision rate for the period 2001-2019 was 48.1 percent.
Turkish Statistical Institute’s statement on the new calculation method
Red meat production estimation for the period 2001-2009 was calculated by adding the non-slaughterhouse cuts estimated over the amount of skin collected by the Turkish Aeronautical Association to the cattle and ovine cuts in the slaughterhouses. In the 2010-2019 period, red meat production was estimated by assuming that the amount of skin collected for processing in tanneries is equal to the number of slaughtered animals.
In 2020, a change in methodology was made and it was decided to use the “Butcher Power Ratio” method for red meat production estimations.
The ratio of animals slaughtered for meat production in an animal population in a year to the number of animals at the beginning of the year is called the “Butchery Power Ratio (KVR)”. The demographic ratios needed for the KVR calculation (birth rate, live birth rate, life expectancy until slaughter age and mortality rate in the elderly) were obtained from the Animal Production Research in Agricultural Enterprises (TİHA), which has been applied to more than 40 thousand agricultural enterprises selected by TUIK since 2020. has been obtained. The data from the Statistical Information System (IBS) compiled by the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry and published by TURKSTAT are based on the number of animals at the beginning and end of the period.
As a result, red meat production was estimated by multiplying the number of animals slaughtered from the internal population and the number of animals slaughtered from imports, calculated by the KGO method, by the average carcass weight. Carcass weight information was obtained from the Slaughterhouse Statistics Survey conducted monthly for slaughterhouses by TURKSTAT. In addition, the data for the period 2001-2019 were revised according to the KGO method, and detailed explanations are given in the methodological document annexed to the “newsletter” and in the “metadata” section.
Source: Dünya Gazetesi by www.dunya.com.
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