TTB pointed out that Thailand’s GDP could grow below 3% if the “Russia-Ukraine” war is prolonged.

TTB Economic Analysis Center or ttb analytics estimates that the Thai economy will grow by 3.0% due to the factors of the Covid-19 epidemic. Existing omicron species including accelerating inflationary pressures after the Russia-Ukraine conflict There is also a risk that the expansion will be lower than estimated if the situation is protracted. indicates that crude oil may touch 140 dollars per barrel. Specify high oil prices affect activities – travel during Songkran

On March 31, 2022, the Center for Economic Analysis TTB (ttb analytics) revealed that from the epidemic of COVID-19 Omicron species that make people still have to be careful with living and spending. coupled with the recovery of the Thai economy that is still under further pressure from the Russian-Ukrainian conflict after special military operations Economic sanctions were in place. global commodity prices In particular, crude oil prices accelerated considerably. ttb analytics expects average crude oil prices to rise by no more than $120 per barrel. and in the event that the situation escalates The price of crude oil has the opportunity to rise to 140 dollars per barrel. This allows Thailand’s headline inflation to remain high throughout 2022.

With the private consumption situation that has waned due to the COVID-19 outbreak Omicron species Since January 2022, combined with rising oil and commodity prices has passed on additional impact to consumers. especially the low-income groups who were immediately and severely affected. This is because these consumers account for 25% of total household expenses on fuel and travel. Which has increased prices by about 15% from 2021, while still having a high percentage of consumption in food and non-alcoholic beverages. Especially meat consumption accounted for as high as 20%, which raised prices by about 8%.

while sales of durable goods In particular, cars will continue to expand from government measures to support electric vehicles. Although some buyers may postpone their purchases due to the economic uncertainty, therefore, higher expenses will reduce their confidence in the economic situation in the period ahead. In addition, income and general employment have not fully recovered. while household debt burden remained high. Therefore, overall private consumption in Thailand is expected to recover at a slower rate of 2.7%, despite receiving some support from the government’s stimulus measures.

At the same time, higher oil prices will reduce domestic tourism. by affecting activities and travel during Songkran In addition, foreign tourists who gradually enter Thailand after opening the country are mostly Europeans up to 45% and Russians 7%. Insecurity in the European region will reduce the number of foreign tourists entering Thailand. And it is expected that in 2022 there will be only 4.5 million foreign tourists entering Thailand.

Export and import of Thai products will be directly affected by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and limited economic sanctions. This is because Thailand’s direct exports to Russia and Ukraine account for 0.45% of the total export value.

Thailand’s exports to Russia that will be most affected will be automobiles and parts (30% of total exports to Russia), due to escalating production chain problems and disruption in shipping. temporary Meanwhile, direct Russian imports will be affected through soaring import prices and shortages in chemical fertilizers (8% of Thailand’s total fertilizer imports), crude oil (3% of crude oil imports) and steel. (2% of steel imports) including grain imports from Ukraine such as wheat (13% of total Thai wheat imports).

However, the indirect impact on Thailand will be greater. Exports will be affected through a slowdown in the global economy. And imports will be affected by the shortage of raw materials in the production supply chain of Thailand’s key trading partners, the EU-27. and the United States (23% of total Thai exports), which are heavily reliant on imports of raw materials, especially steel, chemicals and energy from Russia and Ukraine.

Therefore, in the next period, besides seeing a slowdown in Thai imports, especially machinery and equipment from the US and Europe, the volume of Thai exports will also slow down. But because the export price will increase greatly in accordance with the accelerated cost. Therefore, it is estimated that the value of Thai exports in 2022 will be approximately 287 billion USD. or an increase of 5.8%

Therefore, the burden of higher domestic costs Along with the slowdown in domestic demand and the foreign economy. As a result, investor confidence and private investment activities will decline as well. In addition to being cautious in new hires to control costs, ttb analytics estimates that the Thai economy in 2022 will expand at 3.0%, which is the direction of recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. slower than previously estimated

However, the Thai economy is still at risk of expanding at a lower rate than previously assessed. If the conflict in Europe escalates and there is an outbreak of COVID-19 A serious new species This will result in commodity and energy prices in global and domestic markets staying at high levels longer than previously estimated. Thai business activities may also decline more than expected due to higher cost adjustments. This will affect the level of employment in the future.
Prices of energy and commodities in global markets have risen following the ongoing international conflicts.

As a result, Thai businesses that use energy or raw materials imported from abroad, such as chemical fertilizers, corn, soybeans, and other metals, have to face higher and more volatile production costs. while the price increase is still less than the increase in consumption costs. that tends to slow down and the slow recovery of tourism The cost and marketing risks of the business sector are increasing. And consequently, the business sector has to be cautious in making investment decisions. especially the food business consumer goods and construction sector

Therefore, the business sector must accelerate adaptation by increasing the efficiency of production and transportation. Online marketing to penetrate new markets and manage stocks in accordance with market demands This will help maintain the growth and profitability of the business amid economic uncertainty.

  • They quarreled, but we trembled.

Read the original news: TTB points out that Thai GDP could grow below 3% if the “Russia-Ukraine” war is prolonged.

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