Trump’s impeachment: The verdict of Republican senators will determine the party’s future

It is estimated that if the vote on the charges in the Senate takes place after Jan. 20, when Democrat Joe Biden is inaugurated as president, Trump’s removal will be supported, of course, by all Democrat senators.

But it will also require the support of at least 17 Republicans who lost a majority in the Senate after two by-elections in Georgia.

It will not be easy, because the right is currently in an unenviable position. A number of Republican politicians, both publicly and privately, condemn Trump’s rhetoric, which incited fanatics to attack the U.S. Capitol, but must also take into account several very important aspects.

On the one hand, some more moderate Republican voters would like politicians to distance themselves from the Trump camp, which is said to be detrimental to the party. That way Republicans could start looking for a new way forward.

But polls show tens of millions of right-wing Americans believe the conspiracy theories spread by the president and promise revenge on Republicans who are supposed to betray Trump.

Reuters / Photo by Scanpix / Donald Trump

As a result, there is a risk of losing popularity and revenge – not least, not just at the ballot box. Members of the House of Representatives who have hesitated have already been notified of threats by fanatics supporting Trump.

The decision of M.McConnello is important

“It really seems like a good last chance to resist that guy while it’s still important,” says Liam Donovan, a lobbyist and former Republican official. “Republicans can either talk or go the path of resistance, but someday they will have to look at themselves and it will cost.”

Political calculations, as mentioned, are complicated because most Republican voters believe unfounded claims by Trump and his allies that victory in the presidential election was stolen from him.

For example, after the Capitol assault last week, a Quinnipiac survey showed that 71 percent Republicans positively evaluate Trump’s work, and 73 percent. believes that it does not undermine US democracy but protects it. Overall, across America, both rates are 60 percent. respondents’ assessments are unfavorable.

“Republican members of Congress, especially in the Senate, cannot ignore the views of voters. But now is the right time to react, ”said Rory Cooper, a former adviser to the House of Representatives, who is critical of Trump.

“The public reaction to the Capitol is universal – it is negative. Critical remarks about the Short can be stuck to those events and thus mitigate the political blow. The assault on the Capitol becomes a kind of shield.

The elections will take place only after two years, so the risk of suffering today is low, “R. Cooper added.

During the debate in the House of Representatives, many Republicans supported Trump, although ten voted in favor. Paradoxically, even after the Capitol Assault, the right blamed Democrats for breaking up America.

“Why are Democrats lighting a fire instead of trying to put out the flames?” Asked Andy Biggs, an Arizona-elected House of Representatives who recently joined attempts to overturn voters in Pennsylvania and in the same Arizona state where Biden won by a small margin.

After all, the Senate is another matter. Obviously, let’s say Mitt Romney will vote for the accusations against Trump, but most important will be the opinion of Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell.

The New York Times announced before the vote in the House of Representatives that McConnell believed Trump’s actions were to blame and that his removal would help overthrow the Republican Party. trumpism.

„Reuters“/„Scanpix“ nuotr./Lindsey Grahamas ir Mitchas McConnellas

The senator himself said Wednesday he has not yet made a decision because he wants to hear legal arguments. If McConnell supports the accusations against Trump, more Republicans are likely to follow suit.

It smelled of a long-seen fragmentation

If Trump were convicted, the Senate could also, by an additional vote, bar him from holding any future position in the federal system. That would immediately change the situation ahead of the 2024 Republican primary election.

But again, the opinion of the electorate cannot be ignored. According to analysts, the Republican Party must now decide whose votes – moderates dissatisfied with Trump or actively supporting the president – need it more.

So far, both are turning away, Reuters notes. For example, Paul Foster, 65, a painter from the state of Maine, is furious at party leaders who oppose Trump, who claims the victory in the election was stolen from him.

AFP / “Scanpix” nuotr./Donaldas Trumpas

“The party will completely collapse if it turns away from Trump,” Foster is convinced, predicting that Trump’s most loyal supporters will split up and form a new party. New polls really show that many activists are determined to leave Republicans if they don’t support Trump.

However, Marc Cupelo, who lives in New York State and has been voting for Republicans since his youth, has just regretted voting for Trump in 2016. The man who watched the Capitol assault with horror would like the party to throw Trump overboard.

“Distorted values ​​also need to be shaken. I just want him (D. Trump, ed.) To run with his tail turned, “says M. Copelo.

There are now many such contrasts in the Republican Party. Observers say there has been no such internal divisions in the right-wing camp since the Watergate scandal that forced President Richard Nixon to resign.

„Scanpix“ / AP nuotr./Richardas Nixonas

No matter which path the party’s strategists choose to continue supporting Trump or his isolation, Republicans will still lose their votes. On the other hand, it is perhaps now possible to take risks because Republicans will not control either the White House, the Senate, or the House of Representatives.

Trump garnered about 74 million votes in the presidential election, more than any other Republican candidate in the history of such ballots. That figure is impressive.

But critics immediately deny that Trump’s ability to attract votes was surpassed only by his talent to repel them – after all, Biden was supported in the election by more than 81 million. voted Americans. That’s a record, and both the majority of independent voters and some frustrated Republicans voted for the Democrat.

“Scanpix” / “PA Wire” / “Press Association Images” nuotr./Joe Bidenas

Such right-wing voters have been particularly important in volatile states and are now assured that they will never vote for a party that will continue to depend on Trump.

According to longtime Republican strategist Matto Mackowiak, the key question the Republican leadership has to ask itself is, “We can’t win without a base of Trump supporters, so how can we keep it without Trump?”

By the way, other indicators are unfavorable for the Republicans – regardless of Trump. Over the past 30 years, the right-wing candidate has garnered more votes in all of the United States than the Democrat in 2004, and other victories have been driven by the ability to take advantage of the strange American electoral system.

The big corporations are angry

So far, such voters as M.Cupelo are a minority, albeit growing. And the Americans who faithfully support Trump do not hide their anger at Republican politicians who dare to condemn the president.

“Invertebrates are turning away from the president and his tens of millions of his supporters for the actions of a couple hundred people on the Capitol,” said Pennsylvania-born 66-year-old David Wallace.

Interestingly, even after the riots in the Capitol, 139 House of Representatives and eight Senate Republicans obeyed Trump’s call not to recognize the Vinkikai College’s verdict, proved despite power challenges in the courts, that Biden defeated in November.

True, it is possible that the views of such Republican politicians will soon be replaced by a new reality, not only political but also financial. After all, a number of large US companies have already announced that they may no longer allocate funds to various Republican politicians, especially those who refused to confirm Biden’s victory.

Such intent has been announced by Amazon, General Electric, Dow, AT&T, Comcast, Verizon Communications, American Express, Airbnb, Cisco Systems, Best Buy, Mastercard ”.

Vida Press nuotr./Amazon

Large American corporations typically distribute money widely in Washington, but now postcard giant Hallmark has already asked senators Josh Hawley and Roger Marshall, who were reluctant to confirm Biden’s victory, to repay the financial support.

Of course, after the election, there is always a pause in US policy – there is nowhere to spend money, so there is no need for it. But there seems to be an attempt to put pressure on Republicans.

„Scanpix” / AP nuotr./Joshas Hawley

The Dow has even announced that it will not allocate money to Republican lawmakers until the end of their term. Other companies are suspending funding or discontinuing support for both Republicans and Democrats, such as Ford, Microsoft and Facebook.

True, some analysts believe the boycott will not last long, as corporations need access to deputies in the Capitol indefinitely, and the benefits outweigh the damage they can do to links with politicians who are undermining democracy.

“It is very easy to stop funding for campaigns two months after the election. The question is whether all these gestures will survive, ”says Nathaniel Persily, a law professor at Stanford University.