this tells us the story of the destruction of GDP in the face of a war

The war in ukraine It is already going to last two months and has no sign of ending in the short term. The situation is entrenched and Russia continues to try, with ever more brutality and destruction, to overthrow the Ukrainian government.

Thus, this situation, in which the country is being practically destroyed and has caused a mass exodus of its inhabitants, it will cause its economy to drop dramatically. According to him world Bank, Ukraine’s GDP will sink by 45.1% in 2022that is, almost half.

For its part, Russiainvading country, would go back more than 11%, although it is already in recession. In his case, this fall has to do with the sanctions that Europe has imposed on him to strangle his economy.

Therefore, we see how economic ruin is added to all the desolation that an armed conflict already leaves behind. Something that has happened in the rest of the great wars in history.

How much does an economy at war suffer?

spain He knows very well what happens in such a situation, since the Spanish Civil War wreaked havoc on its economy, which by the way had already been badly damaged. Precisely, this figure has been remembered recently due to the crisis unleashed by COVID.

in 2020 Spain’s GDP fell more than 10%, the biggest decline since the Civil War. Although it was quite a distance, since the year in which the conflict broke out, 1936, GDP plummeted 26%. It is estimated that in the three years that the war lasted, the economy fell about 30%.

Let’s see world war i, which was basically an economic war. It lasted four years (1914-1918) and there were countries that saw their economy grow in the period and others, just the opposite. The allies increased their GDP (Great Britain, Italy and the United States), but the central powers and the neutral countries suffered a severe setback (Ottoman Empire, Austria…), although there were some allies that also lost out, such as Russia and France .

Although the worst part was taken by Germany. There are no official figures about the drop in GDP in your case, but it is known that lto country debt (for the expense of the war) soared from 5,000 million marks in 1914 to 156,000 million marks in 1918.

The World War IIobviously made things worse. Although Germany came from a golden economic age, since the Nazi regime managed to increase the GDP by 50% and put an end to unemployment, but the war caused it to fall the most in its history. It is estimated that about 33%but achieved a rapid recovery that made the country one of the most economically stable in Europe.

Japan It was another of the great hit by World War II. There is also no official figure for the fall in GDP, but in the second quarter of 2020 the economy contracted more than 27%, the largest drop since 1945.

similar figures those registered by the United States in its Civil War, which lasted from 1861 to 1865. Already in 1861 there was a recession of 14.5%, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER, for its acronym in English), lto which it went to 23% between 1865 and 1867.

Therefore we see that, despite the fact that we are talking about great wars, Ukraine is going to be more affected by this conflict than the rest of the countries. A stick from which it will take a long time to recover. More as the war is expected to be long.


Source: El Blog Salmón by www.elblogsalmon.com.

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