THOMAS SAMSON / AFP
Fabien Roussel, Olivier Faure, Francois Ruffin and Marine Tondelier during a NUPES meeting against pension reform on January 17, 2023.
POLITICS – Numbers and doubts. One year before the deadline, the unity of the NUPES in view of the European elections becomes an everyday subject with a question: should we have a common list or separate lists as in 2019? The party leaders are unable to agree and it is not the study of voting intentions, carried out by Harris Interactive and published this Saturday, May 13, which will help them.
On the one hand, there is France Insoumise which ardently defends a single list. On the other, EELV and its national secretary Marine Tondelier does not want to hear about it. Between the two, the PS still calls for discussion and the PCF plays it discreetly. In this context, the Green Party commissioned a study on voting intentions from the Harris Interactive Institute.
Three scenarios were studied. The first analyzes voting intentions in a context with independent lists for each of the four NUPES parties: EELV is credited with 11% of the vote, ahead of the PS (10%), LFI (9%) and the PCF (3 %). In the second, a common NUPES list is credited with 19% but with dissident socialist (6%) and ecologist (5%) lists. In the last scenario, that of a single list without dissent, the NUPES is given at 23%.
Assumption No. 1 PCF: 3% LFI: 9% PS: 10% EELV: 11% Macronie: 23% LR: 12% RN: 20% https://t.co/BTIdUJ75rE— Emilio Meslet (@EmilioMeslet)
More seats and behind the RN or fewer seats but in front?
Marine Tondelier rubs her hands. “This study clearly confirms that stand-alone lists would allow for a much higher total for NUPES (by 10 to 14 points more) than a single NUPES list”, underlines the leadership of the party. By adding the scores of each camp, we obtain a total result of 33%. Either by far the best score for the left (and the prospects of more elected officials), all scenarios combined. EELV comes out strengthened in its strategy, that’s for sure.
But rebellious France will also find something to feed its argument. The leader of the party, Manuel Bompard indeed calls for a common list in the name of a victory against ” the far right and the macronists”, assuming that it is the order of arrival on the evening of the election that will be commented on.
However, if they each go in their own lane, the left formations taken individually arrive far behind the National Rally credited with 20 to 21% and far behind the presidential coalition, whose scores vary from 24 to 26%. Next, the scores around 10% pale in comparison. While with the single lists at 19 or even 23%, the match would settle with Macronie and the far right to win the ballot.
Hypothesis 3: Nupes with lead EELV: 23% Macronie: 26% LR: 13% RN: 21% The left is in front of the fachos but fa… https://t.co/DzUrrQI1z7— Emilio Meslet (@EmilioMeslet)
So, in the name of this fight against the extreme right and even if it means losing a few seats, shouldn’t we just form a common front? Jean-Daniel Lévy warns against the risk of “loss of electorates” observed in the study. “Only 41% of those close to the PC would vote for the single list (68% for the PC list if he left alone), 69% of LFI sympathizers (72% in an “autonomous lists” configuration), 54% of those of the PS (against 67% for an autonomous list) and finally 65% of EELV voters (against 86% for an EELV list)”, underlines the expert. Here is Manuel Bompard and Marine Tondelier confirmed in their respective opinions but no further ahead of the final decision.
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