POOL New via Reuters
POLICY – The winter lift? According to an opinion poll carried out by Elabe -for BFMTV– just after the results of the Congress of Republicans, Valérie Pécresse is able to qualify for the second round of the presidential election. Better: she is given a winner against Emmanuel Macron, a first for her.
This December 7 is a small earthquake on the scale of the pre-campaign. It is certainly not the first time that the Head of State is given beaten but the last time, it was against a Xavier Bertrand who could not virtually qualify for the second round. The situation is now changing since Valérie Pécresse seems able to do so.
In detail, the Republican candidate collects 20% of voting intentions in the first round, in this poll. Up ten points compared to the last wave of the Elabe Institute, conducted before the candidate was nominated by the LR members, she comes just behind the President of the Republic (23%) and ahead of Marine Le Pen (15% ) and Éric Zemmour (14%). The left is below the 10% mark.
The Pécresse breakthrough
In the second round, the boss of the Île-de-France region capitalizes, again according to this opinion poll, 52% of voting intentions against 48% for Emmanuel Macron. Figures that could begin to sow doubt in the corridors of the Elysee, while the head of state has been targeting Xavier Bertrand more since the start of his five-year term.
Especially since these data, if they are to be taken with caution, like all the polls carried out four months before the presidential election, confirm the start of the dynamic around Valérie Pécresse. On Monday, the Ifop-Fiducial institute gave the region president 17%, for the first time on a level playing field with Marine Le Pen for accession to the second round.
Scores boosted compared to the waves of November (+3) or October (+7) and which support her thesis that she is “best placed” to beat Emmanuel Macron.
A falling bellows?
Several elements are, despite everything, likely to dampen enthusiasm among Les Républicains. Xavier Bertrand had already been given the winner against Emmanuel Macron, last September, for example, without however being able to qualify for the second round. He remained ahead of Marine Le Pen in the first. This is not the case with Valérie Pécresse in the new Elabe poll.
It remains to be seen whether this breakthrough will be sustainable for the president of the region, as it is not rare to see the post-primary dynamics fall back like bellows. In January 2017, the socialist Benoît Hamon had capitalized up to 16% and 18% of voting intentions, in opinion polls, before crashing three months later at 6%.
“The polls, it goes, it comes, it’s like the tail of the dog”, Valérie Pécresse would say.
See also on The HuffPost: Valérie Pécresse LR presidential candidate, you have not finished hearing this punchline
Source: Le Huffington Post by www.huffingtonpost.fr.
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