The coalition Together, consisting of ODS, KDU-ČSL and TOP 09 with a share of 19.5 percent, would end third. The SPD would receive 10.5 percent of the vote and the KSČM five percent. The Social Democrats, the current YES coalition partner in the minority government, would not get into the House with four percent of the vote. However, according to Kantar, the statistical error in the survey can be 1.6 to 3.6 percentage points.
YES so far has mostly clearly led in Kantar’s surveys. It often reached a share of votes above 30 percent, which is more than it won as the winner of the elections in October 2017. For example, in the polls from last March and April, YES received about 34 percent of the vote. Pirates were mostly in second place in surveys before the formation of the coalition with STAN in January, with a share below 20 percent. Mayors alone in previous Kantar surveys achieved results in units of percent, until last October and November they reached over ten percent.
Kantar also created an electoral model for a situation where all parties would run independently. In this model, YES would still lead with 26 percent. The second would be Pirates with 21 percent and the third ODS and SPD with the same gain of 10.5 percent of the vote. STAN with 9.5 percent of the vote and the Communists with five percent would get into the House.
“It still applies to both coalitions – the pirate-mayoral coalition and the Together coalition that ten percent of the voters of the parties forming the coalition would have a more fundamental problem with the coalition and probably would not vote for it,” Kantar analyst Pavel Ranocha told ČT. Voters of the original parties dissatisfied with the formation of one of these coalitions, however, according to him, would mostly move to the other coalition. For both coalitions, therefore, the estimates of the gain of votes are at the level of the sums of the preferences of the individual coalition parties.
The survey was carried out by the Kantar CZ agency from 18 January to 5 February. It was attended by 1,200 people.
Source: EuroZprávy.cz by eurozpravy.cz.
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