The Western political elite plays a game of chance + video


The heating season is starting, now everyone is speculating whether there will be enough gas in Europe. Olivér Hortay, head of Századvég’s energy and climate policy department, shared a post about the prospects on his social media page.

– In 2021, the year before the war, the annual gas consumption of the European Union was almost 400 billion cubic meters. We were able to produce a small part of this, 54 billion, ourselves. We had to purchase the rest from others. Our largest supplier was Russia, from which we bought more than 150 billion cubic meters of gas, and the rest we obtained from other countries, explained the expert.

But now it seems that Europe has almost completely lost its most important supplier.

– The Yamal pipeline, responsible for 20 percent of last year’s Russian imports, was shut down in the spring due to the dispute over payment in rubles. Following the acceptance of the oil embargo, Russia restricted the gas transport on Nord Stream 1 arriving in Germany, and then completely stopped it by the end of August, and due to the explosions that took place in the past few days, the transport was completely impossible for a considerable time. The most important Ukrainian pipeline may be shut down by the Russian Gazprom in the next few days due to the dispute over transit fees, Olivér Hortay explained.

The only working route remains the Turkish Stream gas pipeline handed over last year, which is important from Hungary’s point of view, since we take most of the gas through it, but it is too small to significantly improve the situation in Europe.

– Thanks to the deepening trade conflict, even the end of this year has become uncertain. Europe cannot significantly expand its own production in the short term, and since we still bought Russian gas in the first half of the year, the annual Russian import may drop to approximately 50 billion cubic meters, said the business manager.

The International Energy Agency estimates that due to infrastructural limitations, gas purchased from other countries may increase to a maximum of 225 billion cubic meters, so this year only 85 percent of last year’s volume will be available to the European Union.

– Therefore, whether the supply will be in danger depends primarily on the development of needs, which will be influenced by difficult-to-predict conditions, such as the weather and the effects of the upcoming crisis – he emphasized.

According to Olivér Hortay, what is even more worrying is that according to the current situation, the year 2023 may be even more difficult than this year.

If the EU continues to be able to buy Russian gas only through Turkish Stream, Russian imports may drop to 30 billion cubic meters, which will only be partially compensated by the amount purchased from other countries – due to the still existing infrastructural limitations. The community thus becomes even more vulnerable to external influences. For this reason, prices and the chance of supply restrictions will increase even more.

– By now it has become clear that the Western political elite is gambling. With the deepening of the trade conflict, control is slipping out of Europe’s hands and its security of supply increasingly depends on factors over which it has absolutely no influence, the expert added.

Cover photo: Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyi (Photo: Europress/AFP)


Source: Magyar Nemzet by magyarnemzet.hu.

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