Under the title “The Arab tyrants may have won the battle, but the conflict is not over yet,” British journalist David Hearst confirmed in an article he published on the “Middle East Eye” website that the victory of the Arab tyrants in a battle, and their counter-revolution temporarily defeated, does not mean that the Spring War is over. It is expected that Sisi will fall, after Egypt has declined economically and lives on debt and the corruption of the military is infested with it.
He said that “the first wave of the Arab Spring protests that erupted in 2011 may have passed, but the embers of its fire are still burning in those streets and in the hearts and memories of millions, due to the persistence of the corrupt conditions.”
“Now, 10 years later, the wood that ignited the 2011 revolutions has become drier, but its embers are still burning in the hearts and memories of millions, and what happened 10 years ago is only the first chapter of a massive and long conflict, and there is another chapter to come,” he said.
He considered that what happened was a great victory for a younger generation of tyrants, and they are the princes whose rule seemed very Machiavellian in a way that greatly exceeded their fathers and uncles.
Hearst described this year 2021 as the official funeral of the Arab Spring, as Tunisia and Morocco witnessed the overthrow of the last governments and parliaments, which were either dominated or supported by Islamists who came to power through the ballot boxes.
He pointed out that “there remains only one model for the Arab state, which is the model of the absolute ruler, military or royal, at the head of an entity that consists of secret police, special forces and paid journalists, ruling their people with a complete mixture of mind control and repression, after the Internet became in their hands a tool of censorship. collective”.
Is the Arab Spring game over?
The writer wonders, then, is the revolution game that swept the Arab world in 2011 really over? Have all those hopes and dreams of freedom and dignity evaporated into thin air? Was it a brave, but ultimately doomed, adventure?
He added, “Both sides in Tahrir Square, secularists and Islamists, committed huge mistakes, and both put their trust in an army that deceived them one after the other.”
The Ennahda party made a mistake when it supported the election of Kais Saied, without delving a bit into his history, as all the information about him was present.
“In Egypt, the experiment lasted for a year, and despite the fact that the late President Mohamed Morsi was the first elected civilian president, he was never in power,” he said.
Tunisia’s experience continued through one compromise after another for 10 years, but for most of that time, Ennahda was neither in office nor in power and yet it was blamed for mistakes made by other governments.
And that in the rush to hold the victim responsible for the crime, analysts missed a prominent point, which is that regardless of whether the Muslim Brotherhood has died and is buried, the Arab countries themselves are in a state of decline, and I can even say that they are heading to their doom.
Emphasize the fact that those who orchestrated the coups are incapable of ruling their country, they simply do not know how to govern it, and are not qualified to do so.
“Remember the three demands raised by the January revolution in Egypt, which are: Bread – Freedom – Social Justice,” Hearst wrote. “In each of these demands, Egypt became weaker in 2021 than it was, when Sisi carried out his military coup against Morsi in 2013.”
West and East against Spring
The British writer explained how the East and West stood against the Arab Spring. Western countries stood against the Arab Spring simply because the Islamists won it, and Westerners claimed that the Arab Spring turned into an Islamic winter.
The victory of the counter-revolution seems to have given the West a sigh of relief, as it did not stop mixing political Islam with violent radicals.
The Russians also viewed the Arab Spring as another CIA-orchestrated color revolution, such as those in the former Yugoslavia, Georgia, and Ukraine, called the Orange Revolution, that were powerful enough to break up empires.
The Chinese also saw in this democratic collapse, which was linked to the attack on Islamists and their demonization in the Arab world, as a justification for their ongoing campaign against the Muslim Uighurs, as if China’s Muslims were also terrorists, like those who called for the Arab Spring.
He pointed out that the Iranians also have a complicated relationship with the Muslim Brotherhood, and never welcome the Brotherhood, the winners of the Arab Spring and who challenge the Islamic Republic’s claim that it is the sole representative of Islam.
Tunisia and tyranny
Hearst pointed out that Tunisia fell under the same authoritarian shadow that it tried to get out of over the past decade, when Tunisian President Kais Saied sacked the prime minister, froze parliament and announced that he would rule through presidential decrees in a move his advisers described as a constitutional coup.
How Islamists in Tunisia found themselves shunned, isolated, and treated with contempt outside the closed doors of parliament, noted that few of Said’s secular opponents were initially willing to take to the streets for them.
The writer said that “there were Arab princes also participated in this obituary, as Tunisia was the last scene in the democracies that these Arab princes were able to sabotage.”
He considered that this was a great victory for a younger generation of tyrants, the princes, whose rule seemed to be very Machiavellian in a way that greatly exceeded their fathers and uncles.
And that the opposition, whether secular or Islamic, has become in the abyss of prisons and many of them died there.
According to the writer, those who could not escape are waiting for their neighbors to report them, as one tweet will be enough to decide the fate of one of them.
Those who escaped became prisoners of concern for the fate of their families whom they actually left hostage.
Sisi issues coups
The British writer criticized the policies of US President Biden, noting that during this year, and during the era of US President Joe Biden, the policies of Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, Trump’s favorite Egyptian dictator, continued.
Biden expressed his sincere gratitude to Sisi for his role in mediating between Israel and the Palestinians during the last Gaza war last May.
“Far from being an international pariah, the Egyptian dictator has become a role model in the region, to which Said al-Tunisi and Major General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan in Sudan turn to seek advice,” he said.
Hearst confirmed that there were members of the Egyptian military intelligence in the presidential palace in Carthage when Said took power, and that the head of the Egyptian intelligence, Major General Abbas Kamel, was in Sudan days before Al-Burhan’s coup in October.
According to him, it can be said that “Sisi is currently exporting military coups after his success in them.”
Washington still supports him even though Biden promised during his election campaign not to give him more blank checks.
Sisi is the poorest 9 million Egyptians
Hearst addressed the deteriorating state of Egypt, especially in economic terms, to show that Sisi’s rule will not hold, saying that “in 2010, the growth in GDP exceeded 5%, while it reached 3.6% in 2020”.
External debt constituted 15.9 percent of GDP in 2010, while it accounted for 34.1 percent in 2020, and domestic public debt constituted 76.2% of GDP in 2010, while this figure rose to 81.5% in 2020.
The external debt also jumped from $33.7 billion in 2010 to $123.5 billion in 2020, according to the records of the Central Bank of Egypt.
These numbers have exacerbated with the pandemic, and the current account deficit widened from $11.2 billion to $18.4 billion in the fiscal year ending in June 2021, after tourism declined and the trade deficit increased from $36.47 billion to $42.06 billion.
“Egypt is struggling under a mountain of debt,” Mamdouh El-Wali, an economist and former chairman of the Al-Ahram Foundation, was quoted as saying.
The foreign and domestic debt interest bill constitutes 44% of the budget, ie double the salaries, three times the subsidy, and four times the percentage of government investments.
“The collapse of the Egyptian economy will have real repercussions, as no one trusts official data on poverty rates, which, according to official figures, rose to 32.5% and then declined slightly to 29.7% in the period from 2019 to 2020,” he said.
But even the latest numbers are still much higher than they were when Sisi took power in 2014.
In 2009, the United Nations said that “21.6% of Egyptians live below the poverty line, and this percentage has now risen to 30%, according to the World Bank, and this means that Sisi is the poorest of at least 9 million Egyptians.”
No wonder, then, that in the governorates of Upper Egypt, where poverty is rampant, a mafia of smuggling boats that organizes dangerous migration trips to Libya and from there to Italy has arisen, and the Mediterranean coast has now become the scene of continuous tragedies.
While Sisi spends money on infrastructure projects of dubious economic viability, such as the expansion of the Suez Canal or the Rod al-Farag suspension bridge (promoted locally by claiming that the world is talking about it), his poor people are emigrating.
All this after tens of billions of dollars were poured into the coffers of Egypt and the pockets of the army by Saudi Arabia, the Emirates and Kuwait.
obscene Arab contrasts
The writer stresses that the entire region suffers from poor governance. In 2020, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations revealed that 69 million people suffer from hunger in the Middle East and North Africa, as a result of increasing crises, social unrest, inequality, climate change and the economic repercussions of the pandemic.
For example, Iraq, which enjoys oil and natural resources, suffers 25% of the population in poverty, while the unemployment rate reaches 14%.
Iraq’s largest production was 5 million orphans, or about 5% of the world number, but the Gulf princes continue to live in unparalleled luxury.
During the court’s deliberations in the divorce case between the ruler of Dubai, “Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum” and his ex-wife, Princess “Haya”, the court heard shocking numbers as the couple spent two million pounds ($2.68 million) on strawberries.
While the annual expense for each of their two children (Jalila, 14 and Zayed, 9) is 10 million pounds ($13 million), in addition to access to a fleet of aircraft, including a Boeing 747, while the number of crew serving the two children has reached The mother has about 80 employees.
Hirst emphasized that “these outrageous inequalities are the things out of which revolutions are made.”
Source: بوابة الحرية والعدالة by fj-p.com.
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