The third pandemic’rest period’ disappeared… “122 days between 1st → 2nd, 2nd → 3rd 45 days”


The’rest period’, when the epidemic of the novel coronavirus infection (Corona 19) is quiet, rarely appears in the third outbreak. When the average number of new confirmed cases per week was around 350, the distance was eased according to the judgment that it had entered a stable stage, but it was confirmed that it was a mistake as the number of confirmed cases increased after the Lunar New Year holiday.

In the first epidemic, the number of confirmed cases was controlled to one digit, and in the second epidemic, the number of confirmed cases was controlled to 100 or less. However, since the 3rd epidemic has eased quarantine in 350 people, this number is the standard, and the outbreak of the 4th outbreak is expected to be much larger and faster than before.

In particular, the 3rd epidemic shows all the characteristics of the existing epidemic, such as group infection and small-scale infection between individuals, and the risk of infection is higher than ever due to the overlapping variable called Lunar New Year holidays.

For this reason, there are voices saying that we need to prepare quickly with the worst epidemic in mind. According to experts on the 18th, the corona19 situation in Korea is getting shorter as the epidemic continues.

Jeong Jae-hoon, a professor of preventive medicine at Gachon University Gil Hospital, said through his social network service (SNS), “the gap between the outbreaks gets shorter and the outbreaks get bigger.”

According to Professor Jeong, the peak of the first outbreak is March 3, the peak of the second outbreak is August 26, and the peak of the third outbreak is December 24. The’rest period’, which is the interval between the end of the fashion and the start of the next, is 122 days between the first and second fashions, and 45 days between the second and third fashions. The period of the 2nd~3rd epidemic was shortened by 78 days compared to the 1st~2nd epidemic.

Prof. Jeong analyzed, “Considering the shortening between the 1st and 2nd epidemics and the 2nd and 3rd epidemics, we can expect to reach the peak of a new fashion from March 4th to April 23rd this year.”

It is also predicted that when a new epidemic occurs, the scale will be much larger than the existing one.

During the first break, the number of new confirmed patients remained in the 10-30 range, and during the second break, the number remained in the 50-100 range, but the third outbreak is still appearing in the 300-500 range. Then, the 4th epidemic starts at the lowest point of the 3rd epidemic, in the range of 300 to 500 people, so there are more sources of infection and the scale is much larger.

Professor Jeong said, “The baseline for the 3rd epidemic pause has been formed high. The problem is that after the holiday season, social distancing has rapidly eased. Vaccination starting from the end of February will lower awareness of the crisis.”

Looking at the number of new confirmed cases, it decreased to 322 on the 15th, but surged to 429 on the 16th and 590 on the 17th. In particular, group infections related to the Namyangju plant, where 115 confirmed cases were found, are expected to be reflected in statistics on the 18th, so the size of 400 to 500 confirmed cases is expected to continue for the time being.

Recently, as the number of confirmed cases has soared, the average number of new confirmed cases per week has increased to 405.9, which is the level of social distancing. This is the first time in 16 days since the 1st that this number has exceeded 400.

The government eased the social distancing stage from the 15th to the second stage in the metropolitan area and 1.5 stages in the non-metropolitan area from the 15th, taking into account the fact that the scale of the outbreak and fatigue caused by long-term social distancing has decreased. At this time, the average number of new confirmed cases per week was 353.14.

It is unusual for the number of confirmed cases to soar in just four days after the decision to ease distancing was made.

The recent trend is spreading rapidly beyond the concerns of experts.

The outbreak rapidly increased as group infections occurred in multi-use facilities such as hospitals, workplaces, and sports facilities. As of 0 o’clock on the 17th, there were 140 and 109 confirmed cases of Soonchunhyang University Hospital and Hanyang University Hospital, respectively. There were 114 confirmed cases related to the heating plant in Asan, Chungnam (as of 12:00 noon on the 17th).

Infection caused by personal contact, such as family and acquaintances, still remains. Of the 5,636 confirmed cases reported from the 4th to the 17th at 0 o’clock on the 17th, 31.8%, or 1795, were contact with the preceding confirmed cases. Outbreaks were more than 1584 (28.1%) and 498 (8.8%) including hospitals and nursing homes.

Until the first and second outbreaks, the infection spread through large-scale group infections such as’Shincheonji’, Sarangjeil Church in Seongbuk-gu, Seoul, and the Seoul city center. The third epidemic is characterized by a small to medium-sized group infection and a third epidemic that the infection spreads through individual contact.

In addition, there is a high possibility that the number of confirmed cases will increase after this weekend due to the increase in meetings and trips during the Lunar New Year holidays and the eased distance measures on the 15th. The government observed that after 5-7 days, the effects of the holidays and mitigation of quarantine will appear.

Experts were also concerned that if the epidemic spreads with 350 confirmed cases, it could spread to an unparalleled’pandemic’.

Eun-mi Cheon, a professor of respiratory medicine at Ewha Womans University Mokdong Hospital, said, “The presence of infected people in hospitals, factories, and dormitories shows that patients are already accumulated in many places.” “In addition to this situation, the stagnant baseline of the third epidemic is 350 As the streets are high, the trend can increase more and more rapidly afterwards.”

Kim Woo-joo, a professor of infectious medicine at Korea Daeguro Hospital, said, “The current trend of epidemic is having the effect of mitigating quarantine, which started on the 18th of last month, and the possibility of increasing the outbreak is strong next week due to the increase in the amount of movement during the Lunar New Year holidays. It will be steep.”

Professor Jeong Jae-hoon said, “Assuming that there will be a unit of 2,000 patients from March to April, we have to prepare for hospital beds, life treatment centers, and treatments. This is the most vulnerable period when the vaccine has just begun to be distributed, and the vaccine’s effectiveness is demonstrated. It is before it is done, so the greatest damage can occur.”

Professor Eun-mi Chun said, “Recent hospital infection cases spreading at a rapid pace need to be tested for the outbreak of mutant virus.” “Companies with many foreign workers, enclosed environments, or group camps are regularly inspected. Efforts to find a confirmed patient should be carried out at an early stage of the year.”

[서울=뉴시스]


Source: 동아닷컴 : 동아일보 전체 뉴스 by www.donga.com.

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