The prelude to the battle for Moncloa

Pedro Sanchez

Losing as little as possible will be the PSOE’s victory

The regional and municipal map came out more red than blue from the 2019 elections and, therefore, objectively Pedro Sánchez has more to lose than to win on 28-M. The PSOE wins 9 of the 12 presidencies it now has – 10 if Ceuta is added – and 23 of the 52 provincial capitals. The political future of the president of the Spanish government will be decided in the general elections in December, although this first test will condition him.

With permission from the CIS poll – generous with the PSOE -, according to other polls that have been published, the socialists would lose seats in all territories except Valencian Country, the Canary Islands and Cantabria. Beyond votes and seats, however, what is relevant is who will have power, and several presidencies are at stake. Particularly delicate are those of the Valencian Country and the Balearic Islands: Ximo Puig and Francina Armengol unseated the PP in 2015 in two territories where the right had an absolute majority. Emiliano García-Page in Castilla-La Mancha and Javier Lambán in Aragon could also fall, although they are two of the baron of the PSOE most critical of Sánchez and, in party terms, they would be the weakest. The little that Sánchez has to gain this 28-M is concentrated in Catalonia. Jaume Collboni could win Barcelona and Sánchez strengthen in Catalonia for the generals.

Alberto Núñez Feijóo

The first assault that can mark his future in the State

“If I can’t win, I don’t deserve to be party chairman. So, give me a little help. Give me a hand!” These words are from Alberto Núñez Feijóo, just three months ago, during the inter-municipal convention that the PP held in Valencia. The 28-M is for the leader of the PP his first trial by fire – with the permission of Andalusia – since leading the party. It is in his hands that Isabel Díaz Ayuso reaches an absolute majority in the Community of Madrid and also recovers regional governments such as that of the Valencian Country.

Now, that the PP returns to the Generalitat Valenciana can be a double-edged sword for Feijóo, because the only way to achieve this is by governing with Vox. In fact, this may be the cross for the Conservative leader once the 28-M is passed. Although the party is trying to iron it out and offload the responsibility on the PSOE if it does not opt ​​for abstention, the fact that the PP can only reach regional governments in coalition with Vox will be a slab in the face of the generals for Feijóo . Now, if he didn’t make the switch and didn’t manage to oust the PSOE in places like the Valencian Country, Aragon, the Balearic Islands and La Rioja, the leader of the PP could see how they start to move his chair in Madrid. Especially if Ayuso gets a big result.

Yolanda Diaz

Retain Barcelona or Valencia as bullets to boost Sumar

Yolanda Díaz insists that Sumar is a state project and that it is not presented as such in the municipal and regional elections. However, he knows that his expectations for the general elections and the ability to mobilize the progressive bases will depend on the results obtained by the space to the left of the PSOE this 28-M. But not only that. In the elections this May, the entire alternative left is playing to revalidate municipal governments as relevant as Barcelona or Valencia. For this reason, although she had initially said that she would only campaign in territories such as Catalonia, the second vice-president and Minister of Labor has changed her mind and, finally, will participate in events throughout the State.

Barcelona is where he will travel most often. The government of the Catalan capital is the most important because of the space it has and where the race is currently more open. That Ada Colau revalidates the mayorship for the third time is crucial for Díaz, because it would mean an injection of strength for his project, thanks to the close alliance he maintains with the communes. A failure of Colau would weaken Díaz, who after 28-M has to tackle a thorny task: the unity of space with a Podemos still far away.

That is why he has tried to strike a balance in the Valencian Country and Madrid – Unides Podemos, Compromís and Més Madrid are facing each other – where, finally, he will get involved because the left plays a lot. In the Valencian Country, re-edit the coalition government of the Generalitat with the Socialists, and in Madrid, that United We Can have a representation in the Assembly that can force Isabel Díaz Ayuso not to have an absolute majority.