That Spain has a problem with the birth rate is something we all know. We have decades with birth rates below replacement and every year that passes we mark minimums in births. A few years ago (since 2016) that deaths exceed deaths.
However, in neighboring countries (and some far away) the situation is not very different. We are headed for a population crash unprecedented and that could be behind some economic changes that we will see in the future.
The figures of Spain
As much as we try to embellish the figures, the reality is that we are going to see a decrease in the general population. The trend is clear: we have reached the peak and from here we go down. The median of the predictions says that if we are now around 47 million inhabitants, in 2100 we will be around 30.
This implies that from now on we are an increasingly less interesting market for companies. A shrinking market and a country that will find it difficult to raise its GDP, since in order to achieve this, productivity must grow faster than the rate at which the population decreases.
And those changes at the same time pensions become a problem for public accountsso the public powers will be more focused on saving the personal economy of an increasingly large group of voters than on the economic problems arising from this situation.
Other countries that have it complicated
Spain is not the only country in this situation. For example, Italy a couple of years ago reached the peak and its population is already declining. And it will be more pronounced, since right now it has 60 million inhabitants and in 2100 it will be practically equal to Spain.
Another example of the population debacle is China, which is seeing its one child policy implanted 50 years ago is already wreaking havoc. And to that is added the recent prosperity, which makes their natural rates, without political pressure, reduce even more.
We can also see that the phenomenon is not only European or in countries that have applied crazy birth control policies. Korea, a prosperous Asian country, also has a trend that speaks for itself.
And you only have to look at a map of Europe to see that many countries are going to be in a situation similar to that of Spain. decreasing populationssomething never seen in history in a sustained way.
Countries that are spared from burning (partially)
There are some developed countries that manage to maintain a decent birth rate, not to keep up with population increases, but at least to stabilize. Three examples are the UK, France and the US.
These are countries where birth incentives manage to work somewhat better than in the rest of the world. And where immigration also manages to compensate somewhat for the drop in birth rates, since none of these countries manages to have a birth rate higher than 2, far from it.
Where will companies invest?
It is population crash It will have a big impact in the future. First, because without population growth there is no economic growth. There is no more than going to old areas, almost abandoned towns or to a neighborhood where there are young people and children. Where are there really job opportunities and is the economy vibrating? Well, the future of Spain and other countries is more similar to “emptied Spain” than to a young neighborhood.
But it is also that this population collapse will bring other consequences. Where are companies going to invest? In areas where the population disappears and it is difficult to find workers or in areas where the population is at least maintained? The answer is clear.
In fact, one of the current reasons for the shortage of qualified workers in some sectors is simply that the decrease in population is already beginning to be noticed in some age groups. And that is the future that awaits us.
Source: El Blog Salmón by www.elblogsalmon.com.
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