The pandemic is not over! Wave 7 is coming

Octavian Jurma: The pandemic is not over! Wave 7 may begin in early November.

The President of the United States of America announced the end of the pandemic. However, Romanian specialists are preparing us for the 7th wave.

Octavian Jurma warns that we could soon face the 7th wave and claims that Romania has officially left the 6th wave of the pandemic since last week.

Octavian Jurma: The pandemic is not over! Wave 7 may begin in early November

“We must not forget that the 6th wave is only the first summer wave that Romania has gone through since the beginning of the pandemic. The early exit from wave 6 leaves room for an autumn wave and it is possible to witness the transition to a new stage of the pandemic with 3 or even 4 waves per year.

Wave 6 is the slowest of the last 4 waves but falls within the typical 3 months (80-90 days) of a COVID-19 wave. We already have the first signs of a plateau at the level of admissions, which in this wave also decrease more slowly than the number of new cases.

Apparent virulence (the ratio between the number of hospitalizations and the number of infections) is below the 4-Delta wave and above the 5-Omicron-BA1 wave.

As a total number of cases, wave 6 has officially accumulated approximately 350,000 new cases, almost identical to wave 3-Alpha but with a much lower number of tests (1.8 million rapid tests and PCR in wave 6 compared to 4.2 million in wave 3 ).

Wave 7 can start at the end of October or the beginning of November depending on when the dominant versions of the new generations will arrive in the country.

Among them, versions BA.4.6, BQ.1.1, BA.2.3.20 and BA.2.75.2 are the most infectious at the moment, but at the global level we are witnessing a unique phenomenon of convergence towards certain advantageous mutations, doubled by a the divergence that produces numerous variants in an increasingly shorter time.

Among the new generations of viruses, so far only versions BA.2.75 “Centaurus” and BA.4.6 have been confirmed in Romania in August.

In this context, we can hope that the next wave will be milder than the 6th wave, but we must prepare for the eventuality that the most important wave of 2022 will be the next one, i.e. an autumn/winter wave,” says the researcher , in a post on Facebook.

In the case of the 6th wave we prepared by denial, in the case of the 7th wave we do it by anti-vaccination

In addition to the “common sense” measures (testing, mask, hygiene, distancing), Octavian Jurma reminds Romanians to get vaccinated with the new versions of the anti-covid vaccine.

“The most important protective measure is vaccination with the new versions of the anti-COVID vaccine. Then there are the familiar, common sense measures that define the new normality in the pandemic: testing, masks in closed public spaces, distancing, hygiene and air quality. Effective antiviral medication (Paxlovid) is also important for the unfortunate case in which we become infected.

Unfortunately, if in the case of the 6th wave we prepared by denial, in the case of the 7th wave we are doing it through anti-vaccination”, Jurma said.

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Source: DoctorulZilei by

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