A research paper prepared by the “Washington Institute for Near East Policy” at the end of last March “2021 AD” states that holding Palestinian elections will lead to the victory of “Hamas” movement, referring in particular to internal divisions in “Fatah”, which “may exceed what (the President of the Authority) expected ) Mahmoud Abbas”. The analysis did not rule out that Abbas would decide to postpone the election date, given the internal divisions within his movement, in exchange for the “relative unity of his opponents,” as well as “the damage that certain results could inflict on Palestinian relations with the West,” according to the Washington Institute.
At the same time, the analysis confirms that “2021 is not 2006”, despite the similarities between the current dynamics and those of a decade and a half ago. He added, “There are important differences that make it difficult to predict the outcome of the elections. If the polling process actually takes place this year, it will be subject to a different electoral law that makes it difficult for one party to win an overwhelming majority.” He concluded, “The movement may encounter difficulties in portraying itself as a well-governed and clean party, as it did in 2006.”
In conclusion – according to the analysis – Hamas appears to be in a better position to run in the elections, and if the members of this movement – which the United States ranked on the list of terrorism – wins seats in the revived Palestinian Legislative Council, its results will have major repercussions on the American policy towards the Authority. Palestinian and the Middle East Peace Process. ” He concluded by saying, “To avoid any wrong Palestinian calculations, the Biden administration should closely monitor these developments and clarify their bilateral implications.”
Fatah splits and Hamas’ cohesion
According to writer and political analyst Sari Orabi, out of the 36 electoral lists for the Legislative Council elections supposed to take place on May 22, Fatah’s lists were divided into three lists, in addition to the spread of many of its cadres in lists describing itself as independent, while Hamas presented a list. A coherent one, even if some of its members may participate in independent lists, which is a matter that calls for contemplation, from this point of view, regardless of the debate about the feasibility and correctness of these elections, or about the effects of this scene on the election results and the fortunes of the blocs.
In his analysis of the Palestinian scene before the upcoming legislative elections, “Orabi” believes that the Fatah movement and the Palestinian Authority enjoy freedom of movement and action as the party of the authority that directed all its capabilities after the split in 2007 AD to impose its political project with the tools of the authority and work on the masses to pay attention to public affairs, and one of its forms was action. The striving and continuous dismantling of the organizational structures of Hamas in the West Bank, under the pretext of division. In addition, Hamas is a prohibited movement by the laws of occupation, the true ruler of the entire West Bank. It, in this case, has long suffered from a double targeting campaign, which left profound consequences for its organizational presence and mobility.
Nevertheless, according to the author, Hamas managed to form its list without any major internal sensitivities, nor at any of its levels, nor in any of the areas of the Palestinian Authority, whether in the West Bank or in the Gaza Strip. It is true that a wide audience in the movement appeared to be an ascetic in these elections, and an elite within its circles presented a focused criticism of this path for objective and historical reasons, which cuts the way to any serious internal competition, but the matter in its essence is further than that. Hamas has suitable conditions for organizational work inside the Gaza Strip, which allows it to work openly and quietly at non-military levels, while in the West Bank, all sectors of work in the movement are almost equal in the West Bank. Simply belonging to the movement or providing services to it is sufficient for arrest. Transparent atmosphere
This possibility doubles according to the level of activity and the position of responsibility, which is inconsistent with the requirements of public work, which requires a great deal of openness, comfort and freedom of movement. Nevertheless, Hamas was able to choose the members of its list in the West Bank, without this being reflected in any form of internal “rebellion or rebellion”, without that implying the idealism of the mechanism and options, for the aforementioned circumstances.
Before that, Hamas had held its internal elections in the Gaza Strip, in a transparent and semi-public atmosphere, which witnessed a clear competition between two leading figures in it, in a manner that did not affect the structure and cohesion of the movement. It is currently conducting its internal elections in both the West Bank and outside Palestine, with methods, tools and mechanisms that suit the special circumstances of these geographical locations, on the way to electing executive and shura bodies and forming public organizational bodies.
The link between Hamas’s formation of a single list without perceived personal or regional sensitivities, and its internal elections, is its ability to maintain its organizational cohesion, in conditions of geographical separation, with varying work environments, some of which are very harsh, in contrast to the phenomenon of dissociation and historical difference in Fatah, noting The objective conditions necessarily serve Fatah, as it governs the West Bank arena, and is not subject to security targeting, and the regional and international blockade that Hamas is exposed to.
The writer affirms that the phenomenon of split in Fatah is historical since the founding of the movement, but the difference between yesterday and today is that the old splits were based on intellectual, political and ideological foundations because the movement previously included different intellectual and political currents. As for the splits of Fatah today, they are personal par excellence, and the differences that currently plague them are purely personal, and at their best they call for organizational reform, to rid the movement of the state of authoritarian central hegemony over it, a situation that excludes many interests, personalities and centers of influence, without proposing those who violate the official line of the movement New political approaches that reconsider the current political course.
It concludes that the liquidation of Fatah movement as a national liberation movement, and its intensification of a party of power governed by the coercions of the occupation, has permanently canceled the programmatic and political differences in the movement, and eliminated the diversity of currents within it, in favor of the growth of mafia networks in it, and in a way that focuses the struggles within the movement on influence and shares of power, which is It is very dangerous at the national level.
Source: بوابة الحرية والعدالة by fj-p.com.
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