The likelihood of approval of NVIDIA’s deal with Arm has tripled, analysts said

Half of the eighteen months allotted for the approval of the deal between NVIDIA and Arm have passed half, and no significant progress has been observed. Only recent statements from representatives of Broadcom, MediaTek and Marvell Technology have led skeptics to raise the level of optimism a little. Citi analysts now estimate the deal has a 30% success rate.

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Previous forecast by experts, as noted Barron’s, generally mentioned the probability of completion of the transaction is no more than 10%. Broadcom chief executive Hock Tan said in an interview with The Sunday Times that NVIDIA’s investment in Arm will increase the budget for the development of processor architectures, and access to them will continue to be fair. Marvell Technology sees another advantage in the combination of NVIDIA and Arm: the productive segment of compatible processors should receive a new impetus for development. MediaTek CEO Rick Tsai expressed confidence that after the merger of NVIDIA and Arm, customers of the latter will be able to bring more competitive products to the market.

The UK, we recall, should issue its verdict on the deal between NVIDIA and Arm in the near future. Citi analysts believe it will be positive, which cannot be guaranteed against Chinese antitrust officials. For the Chinese side, Arm’s move under the wing of a US company could symbolize restricting access to compatible architectures, and NVIDIA will likely have to make some special commitment to Arm’s Chinese customers in order to get approval from local regulators. Recall that Arm has a joint venture in China, which was already involved in a scandal with a change of leadership and a raider takeover.

Most importantly, all of these optimistic statements about the NVIDIA-Arm deal resulted in a 5 percent rise in the first of the company’s shares. The deal, estimated at $ 40 billion, also includes an exchange of shares, as a result of which SoftBank will become the largest investor in NVIDIA. Chinese regulators, as noted, have already begun to study the arguments of possible opponents of the deal, of whom there are many in the local market.

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