The Illa effect wins, but the independence movement adds


Another that Illa achieves the support of ERC and Comunes for a left-wing government. Complicated. And another is that Illa supports Aragonés in a left-wing pact. You in Catalonia, the PSOE in Madrid. Illa has said that she will present her candidacy, but she may lose and support ERC. The independentistas have already released two orders: agreed independence referendum and amnesty. Aragonés looks more president than Illa and will assert his strength.

The Catalan elections have shown several things again, among them, that the Catalans are more afraid of the coronavirus than of independence, which has been reflected in a participation that has left more constitutionalists at home. And yes, there was an Illa effect, who managed to win the elections, despite her performance during the pandemic. Once again, the elections in Catalonia show that going on television brings to account and gives votes confirming the slogan that they talk about you even if it is bad. Illa has emotionally dedicated her victory to her teammate Sergi Mingote, and has made it clear that she is going to stand for the inauguration because victory in votes is a message of change.

The reality is that governance in Catalonia is not going to be easy. The victory Salvador Illa -which demonstrates the success of Sánchez who knows the Spanish as few-, It has not been enough to prevent an absolute majority of the independentistas in the Parliament of Catalonia, although now it is ERC that finally surpasses JxCat. And that does have consequences because Puigdemont’s party has become one more radical than Junqueras’. Let’s not forget that ERC and PSOE have a pact in Madrid that can make a left-wing government together with the Commons (who resist and equal their results). They have already offered Illa their support.

PSC and ERC have obtained 33 seats, followed by Junts, with 32. The Socialists have won more votes than ERC. The reality is that ERC, with Pere Aragonés as candidate, has tied in seats with the Socialists this Sunday and can govern, or with his colleagues from the ‘procés’ –Together- or with the PSC and the commons, with these inside or outside the Executive. ERC undertook, by signature, not to support Illa as a candidate for the Presidency, or to use his votes, but now we will see if he complies. Although Illa has ensured that he will present his candidacy for the presidency, it cannot be ruled out that he will first entrust Aragonés to do so if he ties the agreement with Laura Borrás, the leader of Junts.

Vox It is another of the great winners of the night and they become the fourth political force in the Parliament with 11 seats. Add more than Ciudadanos and PP. And it is a tumble for a married man who has paid dearly for his moderation. With Cayetana, Vox is better fought. What the poor result of the PP with three seats shows is that its position in Catalonia is residual. Casado does not seem to be affected by this result, but the possibility of him controlling Vox as the PSOE has done with Podemos will take him more years than expected. The PP has blamed the Bárcenas effect for the results. Bad consolation.

The CUP It has also achieved a great result with 9 seats while the Commons remain with 8. Ciudadanos has suffered a terrible setback that casts doubt on its future as a party. He was born to lead in Catalonia, he managed it, he forgot about her to look at Moncloa and he has paid for it. With a sidereal destruction. There he is left with 6 (he had 36 seats) and an emergency committee.

Arrimadas and his Citizens they do not lift their heads. He has called for an emergency meeting of his national leadership for this Monday. We will see if there are resignations. The previous regional elections, Galicia and the Basque Country, were also very bad for Ciudadanos. In Galicia they stayed out of the legislative chamber, and in Vitoria they managed to enter, but on a joint list with the PP.

The coronavirus has been another of the great protagonists of the elections. Only 53% of the Catalan voters went to vote and it seems that the independentistas continue to be more motivated to do so. Yes, they are more than the Galician and Basque women, but fear has voted because it came from 80% of 2017. In short, a complex governance and results that will further embed the situation of a Catalonia entrenched in two halves. We will see how Sánchez does to avoid the pressure of a referendum now. The amnesty or pardon for the procés prisoners now seems closer. Constitutionalism, always divided, has lost a new battle.


Source: Telecinco – Noticias de última hora, realities y series by www.telecinco.es.

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