The hidden inflation tax is coming

According to the Def, the state will collect 39.7 billion more in taxes and contributions in 2022 than last year. This forecast, claims the CGIA research office, cannot take into account the consequences that Covid and the Russian-Ukrainian war could cause in the coming months. However, if the estimate were confirmed, «we would like to point out that a part of this increase in revenue would also be attributable to the sharp increase in inflation which, according to forecasts, this year is destined to reach almost 6%. In short, the hidden inflation tax is on its way ».

According to the association, “at a time when families are suffering frightening increases that could cause a vertical drop in domestic consumption, it would be desirable for the government to return part of this extra revenue, reintroducing fiscal drag. A measure that would strengthen the purchasing power of pensioners and employees, giving some relief especially to those who currently find themselves in serious economic difficulty ».

The danger that the economy is slowly sliding towards stagflation is “very high – adds the CGIA – the difficulties linked to the post-pandemic, the effects of the war in Ukraine, economic sanctions against Russia, the increase in the prices of raw materials. and energy products risk in the medium term to push the economy towards zero growth, with inflation that would start to reach double digits ”.

Confindustria: “Dear energy weighs on businesses and families”

In a worsening scenario due to expensive energy and raw materials, public interventions are still partial. This is what the Confindustria (Csc) study center writes in the usual flash juncture.

The Government has so far allocated around 14 billion euros for the first half of 2022 and without resorting to additional deficit – says the Csc – 11 to support families and businesses (of which 1.2 for large companies only for the first quarter) and 3 for the first structural interventions on gas, renewable energy and in support of the automotive and micro-processor supply chains. According to the association of entrepreneurs, these are insufficient interventions.

The price of electricity in Italy continues to suffer greatly (+ 523% in the same period). The prices of other raw materials, with the conflict, have accentuated the increases: metals + 86%, cereals + 77% in March from the end of 2019. All this weighs on the costs and investments of businesses and on household spending, adds the Csc.

Confindustria: “The rise in rates in the EU is a problem for Italy”

Uncertainty and distrust weigh on the Eurozone and long-term interest rates are on the rise. This rise is “a problem for Italy” and the other countries because “it will gradually increase interest spending as new issues occur at higher rates”.

«Italy – affirms the association of entrepreneurs – will have less budget space to implement a new expansionary maneuver in public finance. Given the high debt, policies will also have to be cautious to avoid further leaps in the spread. Furthermore, if the rise in the BTP were to be transferred to the cost of bank deposits and also to increase the cost of credit, this would determine a further increase in costs for businesses and households, already affected by expensive energy. This would penalize both investments and private consumption, weighing down the Italian GDP “

Source: RSS Economia by

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