An analytical paper considered that Sudan’s flexibility in sometimes conflicting positions regarding the Renaissance Dam file reflects ambiguity in the political decision-making process in the transitional phase. Noting that “Egypt” strongly relies, within a broader strategy of rapprochement with the Nile Basin countries, on the Sudanese position and its steadfastness in facing the Ethiopian quirks.
The paper published by the “political street” website under the title “The Sudanese-Ethiopian crisis and its impact on Egypt” monitored this stalling through conflicting positions; It started with Khartoum announcing its boycott of the talks related to the Renaissance Dam, then Prime Minister Hamdok announced during his visit to Addis Ababa last December 13 that an agreement had been reached with Ethiopia to resume negotiations in light of Egyptian silence, and the two sides agreed to give the African Union a greater role in the talks, which expresses a lack of understanding For the Egyptian position.
On the impact of the Sudanese problems with Egypt, the paper listed the file “Red Sea Security”; Revealing that it is one of the thorny issues between Cairo and Khartoum in the last years of the era of Omar al-Bashir, and it is likely that any Ethiopian-Sudanese rapprochement in the context of Ethiopia’s efforts to exploit Sudanese ports will renew this tension, taking into account the Turkish-Ethiopian military cooperation.
Another thorny position is the position of the Sudanese political forces on Egypt. Cairo is trying to extend bridges of communication with Sudanese revolutionary forces that have long been known to be radical, which could be affected, in terms of power and spread, by the growth of Ethiopian influence among political forces that view Egypt with suspicions, most of which may be linked to a stereotypical inherited image, which was represented by the excitement of some forces and voices. The Sudanese issue of the Halayeb Triangle, in the midst of the Sudanese forces reclaiming lands that Ethiopia recognizes as Sudanese.
Nile water file
Regarding the relationship between the border crisis and the Renaissance Dam negotiations, the paper focused on what was revealed by the Sudanese Foreign Minister in charge, Omar Qamar al-Din, about his country’s position on the border issue with Ethiopia and the Renaissance Dam crisis. He stated that relations with Ethiopia are well established as all neighboring countries, and that Sudan is trying to live in peace with all its neighbors, but there was a difference in views regarding the borders, and that the areas that the Sudanese army entered are Sudanese areas over which Sudan exercises its sovereign right, and that border disputes must be resolved through negotiations. .
The paper also highlighted the position of the Ethiopian Foreign Ministry, which said that her country and Sudan agreed to finally solve the border issue between them after days of tension. With regard to the Renaissance Dam crisis, the Sudanese minister stated that his country demanded the need to think of a different approach in the way it conducts negotiations, and stressed that Sudan did not leave the negotiation. And it believed that the stumbling of the Renaissance Dam negotiations created a fertile environment for escalating disputes between the two countries, so the matter would not have reached this point if the Renaissance Dam negotiations were successful.
The paper concluded that the border conflict between Sudan and Ethiopia is historical, floating and retreating according to the variables of events. The crisis of “affection” is historical and does not have a radical solution, just as international organizations do not give it great importance to pressure countries, which suggests that there are no near prospects for a solution, and the environment is favorable. For more escalation.
She added that the Sudanese-Ethiopian relations and their current developments should be a major concern for Egypt due to its understandable implications for several fateful files, foremost among which is the Renaissance Dam and the security of the Red Sea.
She pointed out that the efforts of the leadership of the transitional phase represent a way out from the Ethiopian sphere of influence. An opportunity to restore Sudan to its important regional role and avoid further complications of the transitional phase, especially after Ethiopia played a major role in influencing Sudan by standing early behind large sectors of civil and armed forces opposing the ousted President Omar al-Bashir; This enabled it later to continue its influence in the transitional phase, as evidenced by the continuous coordination between Hamdok and Abi Ahmed in more than one Sudanese file, and the clear Ethiopian bias to Hamdok.
She expressed the likelihood that Ethiopia, which emerged from the Tigrayan crisis more delinquent to consolidate its regional hegemony, would not give up its influence through communication channels with Hamdok and some civilian components, and contain the armed opposition. However, this impact currently faces urgent problems for several factors: The most important of these are the erosion of Abiy Ahmed’s image as a regional leader for peace, and the clear rapprochement between the forces of freedom and change and the Sudanese Revolutionary Front with the military component. This indicates an increasing popular alignment behind the Sudanese military leadership, and Cairo’s rapprochement with Khartoum in several files. While Addis Ababa remains able to continue its role as a major regional power in the region; An impetus for its role in Sudan and its efforts to integrate it into the international system, politically and economically, which may push it to contain the crisis and perhaps calm it down for some time at the diplomatic level without reaching a solution on the ground.
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