The coup ruled out the military option in Ethiopia for fear of loosening its internal grip – Freedom and Justice Gate

A study said that “the regime’s failure to take military adventure for fear of stabilizing its grip on Egyptian society,” and that accordingly, “the direct military option remains excluded, although it is not completely excluded on the strategic term, as it can be carried out through intelligence operations in coordination with movements opposed to the regime.” Abi Ahmed and the tribes of Bani Shanqul who reject the occupation of Addis Ababa for its territory.
In a description from the “Political Street” website of the existing scene, through a study entitled “Egypt’s options regarding the “Renaissance Dam” crisis after the failure of the Security Council, Sudan about this option is reluctant to use its lands as a starting point for an Egyptian or joint military operation against the Renaissance Dam, in addition The lack of sufficient Sukhoi-35 aircraft on the Egyptian side.
It is likely that “this puts Egypt before the scenario of open negotiations again, and with it the environmental, social and economic risks of the dam will worsen for Egypt.”

mediation option
The site said that “the current confused Egyptian situation, and the Ethiopian insistence on filling projects, without waiting or slowing down, narrow the options for Cairo, which oscillates between the search for mediation and Chinese-Russian pressure, or the bitter negotiations in the corridors of the African Union, or the trend towards military escalation.”
She explained that “Sudan is seeking mediation by major and active countries in the region, such as China and Russia, after the Sudanese Foreign Minister met with her Russian counterpart, Sergey Lavrov, to discuss developments in the Renaissance Dam crisis.”

He added that “in the same context, Egypt is activating the file of Russian investments in Egypt, including the Dabaa nuclear project, logistical and security facilities and services in Syria and the Middle East, and rapprochement with Iran as a means of pressure and co-optation for the Russian side in the dam file.”
The “study” commented on the efforts that “collide with the strategies of those major countries such as China and Russia, which are aggressively implementing the African depth in the face of Europe and America, in the brown continent, which reduces their role in the file of the Ethiopian dam, and limits the ceiling of achievement or the pressures available to them on Ethiopia.” As a strong and pioneering country in Africa, it has great influence and influence.”

The series of negotiations
The study indicated that “Egypt and Sudan are moving towards continuing the series of negotiations under the umbrella of the African Union, since their failure in the Security Council session on the dam, despite Sameh Shoukry’s statements that Egypt will not accept negotiations without results, during his speech on the “Confrontation” program broadcast on the channel. Extra News, two days ago.

In its vision to activate this path, it relied on the statement of a “Sudanese diplomat”, to the Egyptian “Al-Shorouk”, in which he confirmed “the return of Khartoum and Cairo to the tripartite negotiations again under the umbrella of the African Union”, “with the aim of signing a binding legal agreement that meets the needs of the three countries, and leads to easing The escalation that directly affects the region and the African continent.”

Withdrawing from the “Principles”
The study raised the possibility that withdrawing from the Agreement of Principles to hold the international community responsible for its responsibilities is a third option, and that it is “an option that may immediately precede military action, because of the repercussions and indications that it has on Egypt and Sudan’s refusal to impose the fait accompli, which is practiced by Ethiopia.”
She said, “The agreement appeared in the Security Council session, as a reference for negotiations, adding that it has proven its failure over 6 years as a framework for political, technical or legal discussions between the three countries, as it included a number of contradictory clauses that allow for interpretations different from the purposes of the Declaration and consensus, especially the fifth principle that It regulates cooperation in the first filling and management of the dam, only providing for the joint development of “guidelines and rules” without operating details.
And she stressed that “Ethiopia is allowed to reset the employment policy from time to time, provided that notification is given and not take an opinion or seek permission from Egypt and Sudan, which Ethiopia implemented literally without looking at its meaning, in the second filling this year.”

Military option

And she was guided in her presentation of this fourth option to the developments about it from the article of the academic Al-Khatib, who said in a recent article to him, “If the situation worsens, such a step must be taken,” referring to the military option.
He pointed out that the option of war would be costly, as the Egyptian strike on the Renaissance Dam would certainly lead to a war with Ethiopia, which appears to have relatively advanced air capabilities, which appeared during its 1998 war with Eritrea, in addition to its recent acquisition of the Russian Pantsir mobile air defense systems. -S1 And all this will make this step expensive for Cairo.”

The study said that “Cairo, which has advanced weapons, including Russian “Sukhoi” and “French” Rafale planes, Cairo requested from Moscow about 20 Russian Su-35 planes, which Cairo aimed through to overcome the American refusal to sell it planes. F-15, and give it instead the F-16 short-range fighter, despite the sale of the F-15 to Israel and Saudi Arabia.

Source: بوابة الحرية والعدالة by

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