Although the political news in Catalonia right now is focused on whether there will finally be elections on February 14 or May 30, we must not forget that What is truly important in this entire process is the result that will be obtained in those elections and the possible government options. The Sociological Research Center (CIS) has published this Thursday a pre-election survey that helps us to see how the situation is after the confirmation of Salvador Illa as a candidate for the PSC.
In fact, in that reigning uncertainty about the possibility that the elections will be held on 14-F or not (it is in the hands of Justice), ABC assures this Thursday that the director of the CIS, José Félix Tezanos, has advanced the publication of this survey to overcome this possible electoral delay. The normal thing is that this type of pre-electoral polls are published one day before the electoral campaigns start.
And it seems, according to what is provided in this barometer of the Center directed by Tezanos, that the play can go well for Pedro Sánchez (and Iván Redondo). The socialists would winthe elections with a spectacular rise compared to the past Catalan elections held in December 2017. Then, the PSC led by Miquel Iceta obtained 17 seats thanks to 13.9% of the votes; now, the one who is still Minister of Health, would achieve between 30 and 35 parliamentarians with 23.9% of the votes.
In second position would beERC, which would become the first force in terms of independence formations that would be represented in the Parliament. The list headed by Pere Aragonés would obtain between 31 and 33 seats and a support of 20.6%, compared to 21.4% and 34 representatives in the Parliament that it currently has.
This would imply that, in the best case scenario of the forks in which both formations move, the PSC and ERC (35 + 33) could achieve an absolute majority, which in the Parliament of Catalonia is 68 deputies. If not, and in the event that they want to form a left tripartite, Illa and Aragonés would need En Comú Podem to form a government.
In fact the commons would improve the result obtained in 2017, going from the eight representatives they now have to between nine and 11 thanks to 9.7% of the support.
‘Overtaking’ de Vox at the PP
Another important point in this survey is the ‘sorpasso’ that Vox would make to the PP. Those of Ignacio Garriga, candidate of the formation of Santiago Abascal in Catalonia, would obtain 6.6% (between six and ten seats) of the votes compared to 5.8% (seven parliamentarians) that the PP would achieve with Alejandro Fernandez at the head.
But if there is a party that has all the ballots to be the big loser of the electoral appointment, that is Ciudadanos. Winners of the December 2017 appointment, where they achieved 36 deputies and 25.3% of the votes, now, according to this CIS, they would obtain between 13 and 15 parliamentarians and 9.7% support.
PDeCAT, without parliamentary representation
The division in the pro-independence right would harm both JxCAT and PDeCAT. The first because it would be left with between 20 and 27 seats (12.5%), when they now have 34 (21.7%); and the second because it would not directly obtain any deputy in the elections (0.7).
Those that would improve their 2017 result are the CUP. If then they achieved four deputies thanks to 4.5% of the support, now they would obtain between eight and 11 and a vote percentage of 6%.
The survey was conducted between January 2 and 15, date after the announcement of Illa as PSC candidate for these elections. A total of 4,106 interviews were carried out (1,844 in Barcelona, 757 in Girona, 740 in Lleida and 765 in Tarragona).
Source: Vozpópuli – Home by www.vozpopuli.com.
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