“Some quick swabs are as reliable as a coin toss”

Are rapid swabs as reliable as molecular swabs? “The answer is absolutely not”, so the president of the Gimbe foundation, Nino Cartabellotta that guest of Rtl 102.5 at Non Stop News explained: «The molecular swab done at the right time has a sensitivity of identifying the positive subject close to 95/97%. The antigenic or rapid, in the best of situations, has a sensitivity of around 70%, then when the quality of the product drops, the sensitivity reaches 50% ».

“The complement to sensitivity – continued the president of the Gimbe Foundation – is the false negative, it is obvious that we are using many quick swabs that have a very low reliability in identifying positive subjects, some equal to the toss of a coin . This will create problems. You know well that when there are such high numbers it is very difficult to be able to carry out all the standard procedures in all people “.

“One thing I recommend – he added – is that the vaccinated person, if he is well and if he is asymptomatic, does not swab periodically. There was a perhaps excessive rush to swabs during the Christmas period, inevitably this is also saturating the problem of testing ».

“High virus circulation, difficult school in the presence”

“With this viral circulation it will be very difficult to keep the classes in attendance”, underlined the president of the Gimbe foundation Nino Cartabellotta, adding however that it is necessary to increase vaccination coverage in school age groups.

Cartabellotta spoke of the surge in infections: “Yesterday the data updated to 4 January documented a 153% increase in cases compared to the previous week, in detail we went from about 320 thousand in the week from 22 to 28 to 810 thousand in the week from 29 to 4. These data expired immediately because, adding up the new infections of 5 and 6 January, we have already reached 418 thousand additional new cases, practically in two days we have made almost half of the cases of the entire previous week. This gives us the idea that, regardless of the increased number of tampons, we are still in an extremely widespread phase of contagion in our country “.

And «the positivity rate of the swabs says it: the positivity rate of the molecular is 24% and that of the antigenic swab has exceeded 8%. They are data that tell us that the virus is circulating a lot. What problem can this circulation cause us? It is true that the Omicron variant in the single subject can give a less severe disease, a 40% less chance of hospitalization, but it is also true that with these absolute numbers, if about 1% go to hospital and 1% go to hospital per thousand goes to intensive care, we are discussing very high absolute numbers. Last night we had almost 14 thousand patients in the medical area and almost 1470 in intensive care. We will see the hospital wave of this surge in infections in the coming weeks, in some regions we are already beginning to see field hospitals, black areas, in short, a somewhat critical situation “.

Faced with this viral circulation, the problem of school arises. “In mid-September – explains Cartabellotta – we published the report on covid safety in schools, where there were two fundamental elements required: investing in ventilation and ventilation systems, not done, and introducing a systematic screening system, also not done . Let’s say that what had to be done was already known. Now everything has been focused on vaccinations, but for what concerns the 5/11 year group we have done about 400 thousand vaccinations in three weeks. For some there are many but in reality there are still 3 million and 200 thousand children to be vaccinated. There are still 900 thousand of them in the 12/19 age bracket. This Christmas period was to be used to invest at best in communication and vaccination for the whole 5/19 age group who would have taken up school again “.

For Cartabellotta «we cannot continue with the slogan ‘no Dad, safe school’ because this is in fact not possible in a moment of circulation of a virus that doubles cases every two days. It is clear that what the principals are asking, that is to use these two weeks to enhance vaccination, is reasonable “.

«But – concludes the president of the Gimbe Foundation – two weeks of Dad without any intervention to increase vaccination coverage in these age groups can leave the time it finds. It is evident that with this viral circulation it will be very difficult to keep the classes in attendance ».

Source: by www.diariodelweb.it.

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