Simón, on relaxing measures: “We have to go very slowly, game by game”

  • Fernando Simón warns of the dangers of relaxing restriction measures ahead of time

  • The epidemiologist stresses that we are “very far” from the desired incidence

  • Spain has registered 30,251 new cases and another 702 deaths during the weekend

The director of the Center for Coordination of Health Alerts and Emergencies, Fernando Simon, has appeared again like every Monday to take stock of the impact of the coronavirus in Spain, where there have been another 30,251 new cases and another 702 deaths during the weekend, according to the latest epidemiological report from the Ministry of Health.

With the cumulative incidence in the last 14 days going down to 416.91 cases per 100,000 inhabitants, the epidemiologist has found that the data show “the same evolution descendant“Which has been observed” for approximately 10 or 15 days, “although he pointed out that the figures are still very high.

“The forecast is for the downward trend to continue”

The positive, he stressed, is that if we follow the same direction, this trend “could put us in a much better situation in a few weeks than we are right now”, and in fact the forecast is that “if things remain as we are observing until now ”, let’s continue descending, “Given that the cumulative incidence per 100,000 inhabitants in 7 days it is well below 50% of what was observed in 14 days ”. Specifically, in 145,91.

“Is a proper trend, which is in line with what we all want. The forecast is that it will be maintained in the coming days, ”he said, but Simón does not want to mislead and, in line with the WHO recommendations, does not want to hear about de-escalation. He admits that measurements can be relaxed very slowly “in specific areas”, but on two occasions he has used his traditional map again to remember that we are still in the dark red color what marks the extreme risk level by transmission of coronavirus and measures cannot be relaxed prematurely.

The occupancy of ICU beds, at 37.95%

“We continue to be well above the objectives set to have a situation that allows us to calmly relax some of the measures. This, obviously, continues to have an important impact both on hospitalization and on ICU bed occupancy”, He said, recalling that this last figure stands at a 37,95%, with 4,128 patients in intensive care by covid today.

Simón insists on the need to continue decreasing, because although the incidence falls and hospitals have already seen the peak “maximum occupancy”, the slight improvement they are facing now is still “very slow”.

“We have to go very slowly and with lead feet, game by game”

“We are not far, we are very far from 50 cases per 100,000 inhabitants. We are still in a very bad situation at the national level. The direction in which we are going is appropriate, we are in the line we want to follow, and hopefully this will continue for many days and we can reach that 50, but we are still very far. Remember the map I showed you: we are still this color (dark red). Whether we like it or not. Therefore, we must continue to have be very careful with personal measures and institutional measures“, has underlined.

His message is clear: if we want avoid a fourth wave, you have to be careful, respecting the measurements and without relaxing them ahead of time.

We have to go very slowly and with lead feet, if we don’t run the risk of a fourth wave that we would not like anyone, and also with a saturation level of the ICU right now still very high, which would put us in a really very difficult situation. Right now, as a very famous coach says, ‘match by match’. First we have to go below 400, then we will have to go below 300, then 200, then 100 and then 50. AND don’t think this is a matter of a day or two, not for a week or two. We still need time. It is not as much as we could have said a few months ago. We are having a vaccine, which helps us a lot; we are having an improvement in the application of measures compared to some difficult days such as Christmas; we are progressively having a population that, unfortunately for having been cases, are immune … All of this helps us. We still have a lot left. I don’t want to say months a lot, but quite a few weeks. We still have to be very careful ”, he has settled.

The British variant will be the “dominant”

Asked in the traditional round of journalists’ questions about the variants of coronavirus, Fernando Simón has pointed out that although the incidence is decreasing, the british will continue its evolution until becoming the “dominant”. Simón maintains his theory judging by the evolution it has had in other countries, such as the United Kingdom or Ireland, while stressing the importance of the variant occupying space with low transmission levels.

Specifically, after highlighting that the measures against the coronavirus serve against all variants, when asked about the fact that in Catalonia make sure 1 in 4 cases are from the British, the epidemiologist has answered:

“It implies a 25% presence, but the truth is that in Catalonia, as in practically all the autonomous communities, we are decreasing. 1 in 4 today are much fewer cases due to the variant than 1 in 4 10 days ago, or 15 days ago. That is to say, It is taking up space, but the truth is that the gross number of cases is decreasing every day. This is because we are applying measures that are equally effective against variant and other variants. At the national level, as we have to receive data throughout the week from the different autonomous communities, right now I cannot give solid data, but with the evolution we were observing in the previous weeks, it is very likely that at the national level we are now approximately in those figures, with some area of ​​Spain well above and another well below. We could be in those figures. We will see if the variant can be confirmed in terms of the total number of samples that exist at that time. It does not mean that we have more cases, we will have a higher proportion of the cases that we have ”, he pointed out.

The vaccine effect

On the other hand, Fernando Simón wanted to emphasize once again that what, in his opinion, may be the effect of vaccines against the coronavirus is already being observed. Specifically, he said, there has been a “very rapid decline in incidence” in the people over 65 years of age who reside in residences of the elderly versus those who are not; versus those who are over 65 and live at home. In fact, he said, now those in the first group have a lower incidence that the latter, something that has highlighted, “It had not happened at any time” in the course of the pandemic.

For this reason, he has said: “I support the thesis that vaccines are having a major impact.”

Source: Telecinco – Noticias de última hora, realities y series by

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