And above all health, of course. We will go, Wednesday morning, to the press of the Republicans (LR) party. The format, a little agreed, is popular with major political parties: the few courtesies that it presents to journalists are above all an opportunity to comment on the news, and to publicize the major events of the months to come. Imagine an additional line to the exercise: it would see the party state what it wants for itself for the new year. The subjects, it is sure, would not miss, in a right with an uncertain future.
• Sarkozy bleached
It is the dream of a whole right orphan of “Nicolas”. The former head of state will be determined on his fate on 1is March, in the so-called “eavesdropping” case: four years in prison, two of which closed, were required against him at the end of 2020 in this case where he is suspected of corruption and influence peddling. Almost immediately, the trial of the Bygmalion affair will follow where he will have to answer for a possible illicit financing of his 2012 campaign. Sarkozy, finally, remains indicted in the case of Libyan funds which targets his campaign. of 2007. One or more convictions would taint a character to whom many LR members maintain their loyalty. Going so far as to wish – we do not yet dare say it too strongly – his candidacy in 2022.
• The Covid under control …
The right has only reasons to wish it. Because we don’t appreciate this disastrous epidemic any more than elsewhere, which severely affected the president of LR, Christian Jacob, and several deputies last year. But also because its ebb conditions the holding of departmental and regional elections in June. Deadlines deemed favorable to right-wing leavers, but which will be postponed, perhaps beyond the presidential election, if the sanitary conditions for a fair campaign are not met in the spring.
• … but Macron entangled
LR knows it: in its current state, the party can count less on its own prowess than on the missteps of its adversaries. “Our victory is the failure of LREM”, was there already reasoning after the municipal elections. In recent months, we have therefore fully exploited the difficulties of the executive regarding the masks, then the tests and finally the vaccination campaign. Without missing an opportunity to draw a disadvantageous comparison vis-à-vis Germany, or any country deemed to perform better than France in the fight against the virus. May the epidemic disappear … but that the failures of its management are for macronism a fatal blow.
• The regional won
There haven’t been that many since 2017, but the good news at LR has often come from the ground. Municipalities, despite the share of Marseille and Bordeaux, maintained the large mass of right-wing leavers. We do not expect less – if they take place – the next departmental and regional. The right controls seven of the thirteen metropolitan regions, including the two economic and demographic heavyweights of Ile-de-France and Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes. Many advantages result from this: considerable operational levers, ability to support a host of elected officials and collaborators, national visibility of regional bosses… and an incubator for presidential candidates. Among the main right-wing presidents, three – Bertrand, Pécresse, Wauquiez – emerge at the national level.
• Primaries avoided
That the regional ballot is enough to release the future candidate for the Elysee Palace, it is the dearest wish of the direction of LR. An indisputable champion, designated by the scale of his victory and his polling position: we can, at this price, throw the primary system, held responsible for the failure of 2017, into oblivion.
• A candidate that lives up to its promises
Presenting a single candidate: a necessary condition, but not sufficient for the survival of the Right. We still have to be up to the task. “If Xavier Bertrand is in the game, at 15% or 20% in the polls, no one on the right will mute, provides support from the boss of Hauts-de-France. On the other hand, with a candidate at 8% or 10%, the group will not hold up. “ The right paid to find out, in 2017. Access to the second round is no longer granted to him, and the most reassuring candidate can turn out to be a bad bet. Pulling the right number: it is also the condition so that LR, in the years to come, is still in a position to present its wishes.
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