There is no doubt that if there are early elections, PiS will win them. However, there is no certainty whether these elections will give the possibility of governing independently, or possibly adding additional coalition members to this party, says Prof. dr hab. Wawrzyniec Konarski, rector of the Vistula Academy of Finance and Business in Warsaw.
It continues for some exciting, for others an annoying series entitled election of the Ombudsman. Senator of the Polish People’s Party, Jan Filip Libicki, stated in our pages that the possible victory of prof. Marcin Wiącek would lead to earlier elections. Could it actually have such repercussions?
Prof. Wawrzyniec Konarski: It is not even about what Senator Libicki thinks, nor about whether and for whom the disputes over the election of the Ombudsman are irritating, but about the fact that the decision on early elections is made on the basis of the opposition’s state of affairs. . And it is in disarray.
So Jarosław Kaczyński can make a decision about early elections without risk, wanting to strengthen the position of his own party?
Early elections are made when we know that we can achieve more than we have had so far, and the state of the opposition is poor. The latter condition is met. Civic Platform in total collapse. Szymon Hołownia’s movement that climbs upwards, but has no practical experience. Vibrating PSL, with the narcissistic leadership of Kosiniak-Kamysz, not taking into account that his support is on the verge of the election threshold. Left, which is not a monolith. Importantly, the growing support of the Confederation, mainly among young people.
Only this certainty of maintaining power is not there after all?
Early elections would be dangerous for everyone. For Jarosław Kaczyński, such a decision would be risky, because the open question is whether the right-wing camp will come together again, i.e. with Ziobro and Gowin. There is no guarantee that PiS would get more than it currently has. However, taking into account the opposition’s problems and the fact that the Confederation may also gain at the expense of PiS, Jarosław Kaczyński may decide on early elections. With full knowledge that he may not get as much as he has today. One thing is beyond doubt – in the event of a decision on early elections, the PiS president, as the leader of a party with a leading character, must show initiative.
PiS has a good chance of winning, the question is whether it will be able to gain an independent majority and possibly with whom it will build a coalition?
There is no doubt that if there are early elections, PiS will win them. On the other hand, there is no certainty whether these elections will give the possibility of governing independently, or possibly adding additional coalition members to this party. So the situation is so risky from the PiS point of view that we do not know with whom Jarosław Kaczyński would build a ruling coalition, which he does not like very much. He definitely prefers the situation in which he is the leader of a party that rules independently. A puzzle is created here, fascinating from my point of view as a political scientist, because every scenario can be presented and everyone can be defended.
As for the various scenarios. There are many publicists calling for a coalition between PiS and Left, or warning against such cooperation. Is it real at all?
If I were in the position of the Left’s leaders, I would absolutely not enter into alliances with PiS. First of all, this party is like a praying mantis, it just devours its coalition partners. Here, the entire social electorate would join PiS. From the point of view of the left, it would be more sensible to reach those voters who, for some reason, turned away from left-wing parties, and could vote for them. There is one more issue – it was PiS politicians who called the SLD a criminal organization years ago. As far as I know, these words have never been taken back. So a possible coalition would also be difficult for reasons of prestige.
Przemysław Harczuk interviewed
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Source: Salon24.pl: Strona główna by www.salon24.pl.
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