OPEC revises forecast for global oil demand


OPEC has revised downward its forecast of growth in oil demand in the world this year by 0.1 million barrels per day to 5.8 million barrels.

Thus, the cartel expects, in general, the demand for “black gold” on the world market in 2021 will amount to 96.05 million barrels per day, reports PRIME.

The reason for the decline was the slower than previously expected recovery in the transport sector, the forecast for demand in which for the first half of 2021 was adjusted accordingly. It was also influenced by the slow pace of vaccination against coronavirus infection.

The report of the organization also indicates that the volume of oil production in the world in January increased by 0.43 million barrels per day to the level of December to 93.12 million barrels per day.

We will remind, on Thursday, the International Energy Agency (IEA) predicted that global oil demand in 2021 will grow by 5.4 million barrels per day to 96.4 million barrels per day. This estimate is almost 200 thousand barrels per day lower than the January one, TASS reported with reference to the February IEA report.

“The rebalancing of the oil market in early 2021 remains vulnerable amid still strong restrictions in many countries around the world associated with the coronavirus and the slow vaccination process in Europe,” the IEA complained.

We also add that at the end of the first quarter of 2020, several waves of falling prices for “black gold” swept across the world oil market. The negative situation was caused by a whole range of factors: a general overproduction of raw materials, a sharp drop in demand amid the rapid spread of the coronavirus infection COVID-19 (a pandemic was announced on March 11) and concerns about its impact on the global economy, as well as the collapse of the OPEC + deal (officially from April 1, but in fact after fruitless negotiations between the oil producing countries at a meeting on March 6 in Vienna).

However, on April 12, the OPEC + countries agreed on a new deal, in which 23 states became participants. The agreement is designed for 2 years – from May 1, 2020 to May 1, 2022. The new OPEC + deal was a forced reaction of the oil-producing countries to the market situation and pressure from the United States. However, in general, it did not cover the volume of the decline in global demand, and besides, huge reserves of raw materials have accumulated on the market.

During 2020, the OPEC + countries held meetings, adjusting the parameters of the transaction taking into account the situation on the world oil market – starting in May to reduce oil production by 9.7 million barrels per day, in August they relaxed the restrictions to 7.7 million for the period until the end 2020 year.

On January 4-5, 2021, the ministers of the OPEC + countries made a compromise decision, according to which, starting from February, Saudi Arabia will voluntarily reduce oil production by almost 1 million barrels per day within two months, to about 8.125 million barrels per day, and a few more OPEC member countries will cut production by two months by a total of 425 thousand barrels per day. At the same time, Russia and Kazakhstan received the opportunity to increase production in February and March.


Source: Росбалт by www.rosbalt.ru.

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