Commerce reveals that inflation in June ’21 grew by 1.25 percent as a result of higher oil prices and fresh food prices. while inflation for the year was 1.2%.
On July 5, 2021, Mr. Wichanan Niwatchinda, deputy director of the Office of Trade Policy and Strategy (OCP), revealed that the general consumer price index (CPI) or headline inflation for June 2021 was 99.93 compared to the month of November. 2021, increased by 0.38% compared to June 2020, increased by 1.25%, expanding for the third month, but increasing at a slower rate.
The six-month average inflation rate of 2021 (Jan.-June) increased by 0.89% while core inflation Excluding raw food and energy prices with fluctuations in prices, the index was at 100.47, up 0.02% compared to May 21 and 0.52% compared to June 2020 and the six-month average. increased by 0.27%
In addition, inflation that expanded this month also showed signs that demand for a variety of commodities is recovering. especially products related to exports and imports such as food products electrical appliances computer and electronics This was in line with the improvement of related economic indicators such as the Producer Price Index. export value capacity utilization rate Manufacturing Production Index VAT collection on imports and sales of commercial vehicles and motorcycles Meanwhile, farm income continued to expand in line with the prices of many important agricultural products.
The Office of the Federal Reserve has forecast inflation for the whole year 2021 in the range of 0.7-1.7%, with the mean value at 1.2%, with the assumption of economic growth at 1.5-2.5% from 2.5-3.5%. Dubai crude oil is at $60-70 per barrel from 55-65 USD per barrel and the baht value is at 30-32 baht per US dollar. from 29-31 baht per US dollar by adjusting the assumptions in accordance with the current situation
Meanwhile, headline inflation in the second half of 2021 will still be influenced by high energy prices. In addition, the global economic situation showed signs of recovery in many countries. This has a positive effect on exports and the manufacturing sector that continues to be exported. This is a factor that causes inflation for the rest of the year to continue to expand.
However, the COVID-19 situation in the country is still a limitation that slows the economic recovery. This affects overall income and consumption. In addition, there is an opportunity for the government to use or expand measures to reduce the cost of living of the state again. In particular, the reduction of electricity and water bills led to an increase in the rate of inflation. It moves within a limited range and does not exceed the bank’s inflation target. of Thailand at 1.0 – 3.0%
However, for the movement of prices of goods and services in June 2021 of 422 items compared to the same period last year, it was found that 226 items increased, such as fuel, water bills, pork, eggs, vegetable oil, lunch, rambutan, roasted chicken, and long beans.
Products that dropped 135 items, such as electricity bills, rice, sticky rice, coriander, fresh chili, red onion, spring onion, pumpkin, cha-om, 69 items unchanged.
Mr. Wichanan added that the inflation forecast for the 3rd quarter was at 2.13% and the 4th quarter was at 2.37%, with higher inflation, the main factor being the issue of oil prices and rice prices during the 4th quarter. impact, but believe that Thailand’s full-year inflation remains within the range The NEPO estimates that it is not higher than this, 0.7-1.7%.
While many countries have measures to prevent inflation from rising. The main measures such as measures for electricity, water, fuel, taxes, price control, household subsidies support entrepreneurs Each country uses this measure to relax, including Thailand. in order not to affect inflation.
Read the original news: “Oil-expensive food” drives inflation up 1.25% in June.
Source: ประชาชาติธุรกิจ by www.prachachat.net.
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