Fitch Director McCormack stated that capital flows towards emerging economies and the currencies of emerging economies are expected to be strong this year.
At the meeting titled “Loan Views 2021” organized by Fitch Ratings online this year, the economic effects of the new type of coronavirus (Kovid-19) epidemic were discussed. In his presentation, Fitch Ratings Director McCormack said that among the countries rated, 19 countries had a budget surplus in 2019 and only Singapore last year, and that borrowing in general increased all over the world.
Expressing that the ratio of public debt to GDP is expected to increase in 84 out of 180 countries in 2021, McCormack noted that this year, capital flows towards emerging markets, commodity prices and the currencies of emerging markets are expected to strengthen.
“LIGHT APPEARS AT THE END OF THE TUNNEL”
Fitch Ratings Chief Economist Brian Coulton stated that the light was seen at the end of the tunnel and that they expect a significant portion of the population in developed countries to be vaccinated by the first half of this year. “We think governments can reduce restrictions towards the first half of the year if the vaccination of the fragile population can be completed,” Coulton said. said.
Coulton said that in the third quarter of this year, GDP is expected to return to pre-epidemic levels in the USA and in the second quarter of 2022 in Europe.
Emphasizing that government policies play an important role in reducing the economic effects of the epidemic, Coulton said, “Policy supports and salary supports in the epidemic have enabled unemployment shocks to be stopped for now. In the financial markets, the US interest rates are expected to be at zero percent for the next 10 years. If inflation does not increase, interest rates will take longer. will be at lower levels. ” he spoke.
“NEW QUARANTINE APPLICATIONS, MEAN NEW RESESSION”
Brian Coulton stated that China was able to control the epidemic to a great extent, and that consumer spending in the country started to increase again and a full-scale recovery started.
Reminding that new quarantine measures were taken within the scope of combating the epidemic in Europe, Coulton said, “But this time, the effects on the economy are not as severe as in the first quarantine period. Still, new quarantine practices mean a new recession. This is very clear.” used the expressions.
In Coulton’s presentation, in the third quarter of 2020 only China and Turkey showed positive growth, Turkey grew by over 5 per cent stated that outstripped China.
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