Markets will follow these developments

After a mixed course in global markets yesterday, a positive trend is observed in Asian stock markets and US-European index futures this morning, supported by the positive developments in the US debt limit.

Problems in natural gas supply in Europe and the high level of raw material prices, especially oil, caused inflationary concerns to remain on the agenda, while the positive developments in the US debt limit have been a balancing factor in the stock markets, which have been dominated by the sales-weighted trend recently. as featured.

In the US, Senate Minority Leader Republican Mitch McConnell suggested that his party allow the federal debt limit to be extended until December. McConnell said in a statement that he would allow Democrats to follow normal procedures to extend the debt limit. After McConnell’s announcement, Democrats postponed the vote, scheduled for yesterday, on the bill that would suspend the Senate debt limit until 2022.

On the other hand, after the high-level diplomats from the USA and China met in Switzerland on risk management in bilateral relations and the solution of international problems, it was reported that US President Joe Biden will have an online meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping before the end of 2021.

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On the macroeconomic data side, before the non-farm employment data to be announced in the USA tomorrow, private sector employment increased by 568 thousand in September, exceeding the expectations.

With these developments, a positive course was followed in the New York stock market yesterday, while the Dow Jones index gained 0.30 percent, the S&P 500 index gained 0.41 percent and the Nasdaq index gained 0.47 percent. The dollar index is moving sideways at 94.2 today, after testing its highest level in nearly a week at 94.4 yesterday. The US 10-year bond yields rose above 1.57 yesterday, testing the highest level since June 17, while today they are at 1.54 percent. The US index futures contracts, on the other hand, seem to have started the new day with a positive course.

While the news flow regarding the natural gas supply on the European side continues to be followed, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that it is more profitable for Gazprom to deliver gas to Europe via other lines instead of Ukraine, and said, “We must comply with the obligations in the contracts for the delivery of Russian gas through the territory of Ukraine. “It must be fully complied with. We must not undermine confidence in Gazprom.” said. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said certification of the Nord Stream 2 submarine gas pipeline to Germany could help cool rising gas prices in Europe.

Before the announcements, the futures natural gas contracts, which were up to 161 euros in Europe yesterday, were quickly retraced from this level and stabilized at 109 euros.

European stock markets, which were under sales pressure yesterday with record-breaking natural gas prices, lost more than 1 percent as retail sales in the Euro Zone and factory sales in Germany were below expectations. The FTSE 100 index lost 1.15 percent in the UK, the DAX 30 index lost 1.46 percent in Germany and the CAC 40 index lost 1.26 percent in France. After seeing the lowest level since July 2020 with 1.1530 yesterday, the euro/dollar parity is moving sideways at 1.1550 levels today.

It is seen that the new day started with a positive trend as investors in Asia shifted their focus from the Chinese debt crisis to the US-China bilateral relations. Near the closing, the Nikkei 225 index rose 0.7 percent in Japan, the Hang Seng index rose 2.4 percent in Hong Kong, the Kospi index in South Korea rose 1.6 percent and the Sensex index in India rose 0.9 percent.

The barrel price of Brent oil, after seeing its highest level since October 2018 with $ 83.2 yesterday, went down and closed the day at $ 80.5 with a decrease of 2.4 percent compared to the previous close, while it remains flat in Asian markets today.

Domestically, the BIST 100 index in Borsa Istanbul lost 1.43 percent and closed the day at 1,371.69 points. Dollar/TL, on the other hand, completed the day just above 8.88 with an increase of 0.1 percent compared to the previous close, after seeing the level of 8.9365 yesterday, and is trading at the level of 8.87 at the opening of the interbank market today.

Meanwhile, the World Bank raised its 2021 growth expectation, which was announced as 5 percent for Turkey in June, to 8.5 percent in the latest issue of the Economic Update Report prepared for the Europe and Central Asia Region yesterday. The growth expectation for the Turkish economy was reduced from 4.5 percent to 3 percent for 2022, and from 4.5 percent to 4 percent for 2023.

Analysts stated that the focus of the markets today is the statements from the European Central Bank officials, and on the data side, the Treasury cash balance, weekly money and bank statistics in the country, weekly unemployment applications in the USA and industrial production in Germany will be monitored abroad.

Analysts stated that if the BIST 100 index falls below the 1.370 level technically, 1.355 points will be followed as support, while 1.390 points are in the resistance position.

The data to be followed in the markets today are as follows:

09.00 Germany, august industrial production
14.30 Turkey, weekly money and bank statistics
15.30 US, weekly jobless claims


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Source: bigpara- GÜNDEM by bigpara.hurriyet.com.tr.

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