Madrid turns blue after record participation: the keys to 4M

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A supporter of the PP holds a balloon with the slogan ‘Yo con Ayuso’ at the Genoa party this Tuesday.

The triangle of the Community of Madrid has been dyed blue. The victory of the PP in the May 4 elections has been so overwhelming that Isabel Díaz Ayuso has prevailed in 176 of the 179 municipalities that make up the region. Also known as the red belt, traditional bastions of the left.

To find a precedent for such a huge victory of the popular ones, you have to travel to 2011 and, even so, Former President Esperanza AguirreAyuso’s political godmother, won in 174. The success of the PP will be reflected in the new Autonomous Assembly, where those of Pablo Casado will seat 65 deputies —four below the absolute majority—.

The truth is that the popular baroness has won more seats than the three parties of the left combined and has done so with a record turnout. Ayuso has dismantled the old mantra that the more votes there are in the polls, the better the left does.

Ayuso will have enough an abstention from Vox in a second vote to be president

The sum of Más Madrid (24), PSOE (24) and Podemos (10) will not prevent Ayuso from revalidating the position. The Socialists are the great victims on the left by the ‘sorpasso’ of Mónica García, who will lead the opposition to the PP. The purple ones have saved the furniture thanks to the candidacy of Pablo Iglesias, but the former vice president of the Government and former leader of the party has not been able to get more out of his campaign of confrontation with Vox; He has packed his bags and said goodbye to politics.

The Madrid president will not even need the ‘yes’ from the extreme right of Vox, which, like Podemos, also improves very little despite its campaign of fury, hatred and tension. For Ayuso, an abstention from the ultras in a second vote will suffice. Although those of Rocío Monasterio will be decisive in the legislative making of PP.

This is all you have to know to understand the significance of Ayuso’s overwhelming victory in the Madrid elections.

How relevant is Ayuso’s victory?

The Madrid president has achieved an incontestable victory and has returned her party to the levels of success of the bipartisan era known only to another popular baron: Alberto Núñez Feijóo in Galicia. The PP candidate has gone in two years from leading hers to their worst result to reaping one of their greatest successes.

The list of the Madrid president has not only been imposed in the traditional fiefdoms of the PP, such as the districts of Salamanca and Chamartín or the municipalities of Pozuelo de Alarcón and Torrelodones, but in the municipalities of the so-called red belt and in the traditional districts of the left: in Rivas-Vaciamadrid, in Fuenlabrada and in the districts of Puente de Vallecas and Usera, the PP has won the elections.

Ayuso has won in more municipalities than Esperanza Aguirre in 2011, when the former popular president achieved an absolute majority that her political goddaughter has escaped by just four seats and because of a more fragmented context with two other parties on the right that does a decade or they did not exist, like Vox, or they were residual, like Ciudadanos.

This result (44.7% of the ballots) will allow Ayuso to dream of the possibility of governing alone, unlike what has happened in the last two years in which the coalition of PP and Cs has not ended well at all. Ayuso wanted to get rid of the oranges and he has succeeded. Goal accomplished.

A record turnout does not benefit the left

Much of the hopes of the left at the end of the campaign were pinned on an unprecedented rise in turnout already guessed by some polls. But the truth is that Ayuso has dynamited the mantra that the more votes there are in the polls, the better the left does. Not always a greater mobilization equates to more votes for progressive forces.

Never before have so many Madrilenians voted in the regional elections. The turnout has been a record: 76.25% of the census voted this Tuesday. And that is missing to count the foreign vote. The participation exceeds that of 1995 (70.39%), when the cycle of consecutive governments of the PP began.

What is more, is that not a single municipality in the Community has fallen below 60% in participation. In Madarcos, 43 of its 47 inhabitants have voted. And in Boadilla del Monte, more than 85% have done so.

What effect does the ‘sorpasso’ of Más Madrid have on the PSOE?

The ‘sorpasso’ of Más Madrid to the PSOE is a slap in the face to the socialist strategy in the Community of Madrid. And the repercussions are yet to come. For the moment, Mónica García has become the leader of the opposition in the Assembly. Meanwhile, Ángel Gabilondo, who has already announced that he will not resign and will keep his seat, is further diluted.

It is the first time that a party to the left of the Socialists surpasses the PSOE in the Community of Madrid

It is the first time that a party to the left of the Socialists surpasses the PSOE in the Community of Madrid, where it won two years ago. Those of Ángel Gabilondo follow in the wake of their colleagues in the Madrid City Council, where Más Madrid is already the first force on the left. The PSOE, predictably, will rethink not only its strategy, but it is also likely to renew its leadership in the convulsive PSM.

The tension of Vox does not benefit him

The Vox campaign, which dynamited the Cadena Ser debate, in which the far-right has sought provocation, has insulted and skipped red lines, such as criminalizing foreign minors, has barely given it electoral results. The far right has improved its results, yes. But little. The ultras will maintain practically the same influence that they had before in the Assembly.

Of course, those of Rocío Monasterio will have a lot to say in the legislative work of Isabel Díaz Ayuso, since, predictably, the four deputies who lack the popular for an absolute majority will come from the ranks of the extreme right.

Citizens die in Madrid

The death of Ciudadanos in Madrid, where it has lost the 26 seats it had, puts the party on the precipice of disappearance. The result of the May 4 elections has been “bad”, according to the leader herself, Inés Arrimadas. But the reverse of the ballot boxes has not taken away the desire of the oranges to continue rowing.

The party situation is very delicate. The leader has very difficult to rebuild the center after the overwhelming victory of Ayuso and the absorption that the PP has already begun not only of its cadres, but also of its voters. For the moment, Cs rules out that there may be any resignation due to the 4M hit, but the truth is that the pressure on the orange boss will not stop growing from the inside despite the fact that in public there is a “closing of ranks” with her .

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