KPMG: Confidence in logistics remains strong in the first quarter

The Logistics Confidence Index, prepared in cooperation with KPMG Turkey and Istanbul University Faculty of Transport and Logistics, was announced for the first quarter of 2022.

The index, which recorded a small decrease of 2 percent compared to the last quarter of 2021, maintained its positive outlook by measuring 125.47. Compared to the first quarter of 2021, the index follows a largely stable trend. However, there is a 12 percent decrease in the index compared to the record level recorded in the third quarter of 2021. The Current Situation Index, which shows the current state of the industry, decreased slightly by 4.4 percent compared to the previous quarter and became 130.71. The Future Expectations Index was also measured as 122.85, with a slight decrease of 1 percent compared to the last quarter of 2021.

Looking at the breakdowns of the Future Period Expectations Index, the index for business volume expectation in the sector in the April-June period reached 148.31 points with an increase of 9 percent on a quarterly basis. In the second quarter, the index related to the profitability of the sector decreased by 7 percent on a quarterly basis to 93.26 points. Thus, the index on profitability expectations displayed a negative outlook for the first time since the last quarter of 2020. This seems to be due to rising fuel costs. The index for the industry’s human resources needs in the next three months, on the other hand, decreased by 6.3 percent to 141.57 points.

Evaluating the developments in the sector, KPMG Turkey Transport Sector Leader Yavuz Öner said, “Since the Logistics Confidence Index reached a record 143 points in the third quarter of 2021, it has been in a slight downward trend. However, the outlook is still positive. The war in Ukraine continues to affect international trade, especially maritime transport routes. The slowdown in trade with the region adversely affects the cargo handled at the ports. In addition to this situation, air and road transport also face increasing costs. As the Ukraine crossing was closed, Turkish trucks headed to proceed through Georgia, which led to major congestion. Many trucks remained on the border of Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan. However, it is possible to say that Europe’s suspension of trade through Russia is a positive aspect for Turkey. The strategic importance of the railway in the Middle Corridor, which is the most important initiative of Turkey for the ‘One Belt One Road’ project, was emphasized. At this point, it is critical to take the necessary infrastructural measures for the Middle Corridor. On the other hand, Turkey’s manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) fell to the lowest level in the last 10 years. The war and price increases negatively affected the demand from consumers. This situation may put downward pressure on the sector in the coming period.” said.

Source: Dünya Gazetesi by

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