The regional elections of this 4M in the Community of Madrid are so exceptional that it is difficult to know what these more than two points of increase in participation mean and who benefits at the moment (28.4% compared to 26.2% in 2019) registered this Tuesday. The political scientist Sandra León reviews the four conditions that make this day peculiar and that make it difficult to compare it with other previous calls: “There is a pandemic that establishes recommended voting hours, the date falls on working hours, does not coincide with other elections and within two years there will be a new electoral convocation. ”
That is why experts ask for caution when interpreting these indicators. “We must be cautious”, says León: “If the turnout at the end exceeded the historical maximum of 1995 we would see an exceptionality in the comparative environment that we have so far. We have seen three elections in Galicia, the Basque Country and Catalonia. In two of They have given a record of downward participation. On the other hand, what we are proposing for Madrid is something very different. If in the end there is a high participation, we can think that the effect of polarization has predominated over very difficult structural conditions for that participation was high. ”
In the same vein, Pablo Simón pronounces himself. This doctor in Political Sciences considers that an “arreón” of participation when people leave work cannot be ruled out, but adds: “There is no clear pattern, looking at data by neighborhood, on who is mobilizing more.” Simón emphasizes the fact that since it is a working day, the participation entries are being “distorted”.
Certainly, the increases in participation are being registered both in fiefdoms on the left, such as Getafe, Leganés, Rivas or the Henares corridor, but also in bastions on the right. Among others Pozuelo de Alarcón, Majadahonda and Las Rozas. The same happens in the capital, where the increase at 1:00 p.m. is notable in neighborhoods with a conservative vote, such as Chamberí and Chamartín, but also in working-class neighborhoods with a markedly progressive vote, such as Moratalaz, Puente de Vallecas and Tetouan, although in these the increase in participation is less marked than in the districts closer to the right.
“An adjusted result”
For her part, the political scientist Paloma Román does not rule out that participation increases at the end of the day, but warns: “Whatever the participation data, the result will be adjusted.” In addition, Román highlights the marked polarization of the campaign. “It is a very transversal polarization. The left has asked for a greater mobilization. The right already has it in its DNA. It is probably a symptom that people have moved and are going to vote.”
Sandrá León emphasizes the same idea: “The polls showed an interest in the elections and a very high mobilization. If in the end there is a high turnout, we can think that the effect of polarization has been imposed.”
Source: ElDiario.es – ElDiario.es by www.eldiario.es.
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