Internationally, there is a special situation in terms of supply and demand

The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) estimated a good year ago that the world economy could grow by 5.6 per cent in 2021 after a 3.4 per cent contraction in 2020, meaning that most countries could catch up before the coronavirus epidemic – points out in his compilation of the Oeconomus. Fitch Ratings also points out that last year’s economic growth is expected to be the fastest pace since 6.4 percent in 1973.

The eurozone was able to expand 5.2 times in 2021, out of previous expectations, after a 6.7 percent decline in 2020. However, European countries are showing uneven performance

Emphasizes foundation analysis, referring to the fact that Hungary may be one of the best performing EU member states in 2021 with an expected growth of 6.9 percent for the whole year. It should be noted that Hungary already caught up with its pre-crisis performance in the second quarter of last year, which will allow it to reduce several types of taxes in 2022 and help families with tax refunds.

As the epidemic eased, the world’s economies reopened, which, however, not only triggered dynamic growth but also caused specific demand-supply frictions: in 2021, there was an unexpectedly significant demand for a variety of goods and services. The reopening of economies and the forced savings in 2020 each had a major impact on the recovery in demand.

With the increased demand compared to the pre-epidemic level, the extraction of industry, manufacturing and energy sources could not keep up, Oeconomus points out.

There was a shortage of wood, concrete and steel in the construction industry, and the processing industry was hit by a shortage of plastics, steel, semiconductors and chips. There has been a shortage of containers in the logistics and forwarding sector, which in many cases has been accompanied by labor shortages. In addition, energy sources, such as oil and gas, have experienced shortfalls and significant price increases.

There has been a shortage of timber, concrete and steel in the construction industry over the past year. Photo: Árpád Kurucz

Thus, last year, inflation in the world could have been around five per cent, while inflation in the eurozone could have averaged 2.2 per cent in 2021. In Hungary, the indicator may have developed at the same level as the world average.

According to the OECD forecast, the deficits may gradually adjust in 2022, thus reducing inflationary pressures: the indicator may be 3.5 per cent in 2022 and 3 per cent in 2023. At the same time, the dynamics of economic growth are slowing down and may be more stable at 4.5 per cent in 2022 and 3.2 per cent in 2023.

Cover image: Production of the CLA 250 e Coupé and CLA 250 e Shooting Brake hybrid models begins at the Mercedes plant in Kecskemét. Photo: World Economy / Simon Móricz-Sabján

Source: Magyar Nemzet by

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