According to virologists and epidemiologists, the chances are that COVID-19 will eventually become as common a disease as the common cold or flu. However, the road is still long, as evidenced by the spread of the delta variety, which is causing congestion in hospitals around the world.
The pandemic has been going on for more than 20 months, so, scientists point out, people inevitably had to change their approach to the disease – a sudden blow and the need for a lightning response turned into a difficult, grueling struggle.
Finally, the highly contagious delta strain made the virus virtually impossible to get rid of. The delta option has led to outbreaks being recorded around the world, even in Australia, for example, which has so far managed the pandemic quite successfully.
The more vaccinations, the fewer problems
The COVID-19-causing virus, SARS-CoV-2, one of the most contagious known pathogens, is now targeting people who have not been vaccinated. Both in the U.S. and in some other countries, sad records are even being broken.
“The Delta strain is pushing the world towards immunity to this virus, but the price is huge. In addition, with each new infection, the risk of a new strain increases, and it can spread even faster and kill even more fiercely, “The Wall Street Journal said.
“The virus will never leave us,” said Catherine O’Neal, a specialist at a hospital in Baton Rouge, Louisiana, USA, sadly observing the huge wave of new COVID-19 cases.
Scientists are, of course, still trying to determine if even more aggressive or more contagious strains of coronavirus are likely to form. Efforts are also being made to determine as precisely as possible when a pandemic could end.
The most optimistic scenario, unfortunately, is not the eradication of the virus. Experts just believe that COVID-19 will become a fairly common disease like the common cold or flu and will not lead to mass travel to hospitals and deaths.
This, in turn, would mean that for doctors, a coronavirus infection would become an almost common disease, and a coronavirus would be one of several causes of cough or fever. Of course, such a pandemic would also mean that vaccinations would be needed on a regular basis.
Experts believe COVID-19 will become a fairly common disease like the common cold or flu and will not lead to mass travel to hospitals and deaths.
“How and when COVID-19 becomes a common ailment will depend on how many people get vaccinated as soon as possible,” said Adolfo Garcia-Sastre, a global health specialist at Mount Sinai Hospital in New York.
For COVID-19 to be alleviated, many people will need to acquire one form or another of resistance – antibodies greatly reduce the severity of the disease. Recurrence is also a risk, but the risk of being hospitalized or dying is much higher than with vaccination.
In addition, vulnerability increases again if resistance decreases and – especially – if the virus mutates. Garcia-Sastre said: “The more people get vaccinated, the less problems there will be.”
U.S. President Joe Biden said last Thursday he would use his powers and demand that many businesses, federal contractors and employees of health care companies get vaccinated.
Only future varieties are in danger
The White House is pushing for Americans to be vaccinated more willingly, as only 63 percent have now been vaccinated. this could have been done by the population. Biden’s administration points to statistics – coronavirus vaccines protect against hospitalization and death.
U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention announced a week ago that unvaccinated and infected people are 10 times more likely to be hospitalized and 11 times more likely to die than vaccinated and infected individuals.
According to Garcia-Sastre, however, COVID-19 could cause even fewer deaths in the future than seasonal flu, which kills up to half a million people worldwide each year. Because coronavirus vaccines are better than flu vaccines.
At the same time, renowned Milan virologist Roberto Burioni reiterates that slow vaccination worldwide poses a risk of new strains of coronavirus: “We should provide cheap access to vaccines to everyone in the world.”
For the virus to stop spreading, there should be as few people left as possible who could be infected easily. Now the situation is still bad – only 2.3 billion have been vaccinated against COVID-19 completely. of 7.8 billion world population. About 1.1 billion have been infected so far. people.
According to Angela Rasmussen, a virologist at the University of Saskatchewan, it is also important that at a time when the number of vaccinated people is increasing, it is only easier for the virus to find a vulnerable population.
“Vaccination is a safe choice to avoid damage to health or death, the risk of new strains, and the burden on the health care system and the economy,” Rasmussen said.
At a time when the number of vaccinated people is increasing, it is only easier for the virus to find a vulnerable population.
The number of people who are either vaccinated or ill is growing rapidly. According to UK statistics, as many as 98% blood donor country has antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 virus. 81 percent of these people were vaccinated, 19 percent. – Persirgo.
The fact that COVID-19 will eventually become a non-particularly severe condition is suggested by the fact that the other four coronaviruses also only cause colds.
Experts suspect that these four coronaviruses may have been far more dangerous at one time. Of course, there is a lack of specificity – those viruses started spreading a very long time ago and scientists do not know how they developed.
Cat and mouse game
According to Eric Topolo, a researcher working in La Choja, California, the delta variety is so powerful that another potential new variant will be hard to beat.
However, SARS-CoV-2 continues to evolve and strains are still emerging. Virologists and public health professionals are closely monitoring, for example, a recently discovered variant in the Republic of South Africa, whose genome has changed to essentially indicate the origin of the new virus.
Some experts do not rule out the possibility that we will one day hear about a strain that will be resistant to the protection provided by vaccines.
“The next set of varieties will come together when 2-3 billion are vaccinated. people, said Salim Abdool Karim, an epidemiologist at PAR. – It is very likely that these variants will penetrate the vaccine shield. If that doesn’t happen, the varieties won’t accelerate. “
“And if the virus changes so that it can defeat vaccines, it probably won’t be as aggressive or contagious. The situation is such that the virus will have to pay for the right to spread in this way, “R. Burioni added.
This was already the case with the Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV), which causes AIDS, in the 1990s. The virus mutated to become resistant to antiviral drugs, but could no longer reproduce as quickly as before.
True, the genetics of SARS-CoV-2 can change dramatically as the virus spreads through cats, tissues, or other animals, and the strains subsequently move into humans.
Finally, even if this coronavirus does not become resistant to current vaccines, its consistent evolution may eventually crush resistance.
There are already a large number of people who become infected again, which means that an extra dose is needed. Resistance to other coronaviruses causing common colds dissolves 3-5 years after vaccination.
Of course, there are versions that the virus will stabilize and change only slightly over time. But, according to Abdool Karim, whose laboratory analyzes potential mutations, it is still clear that new strains will be found and that they will need new doses of vaccines: “It will be a cat and mouse game.”
Source: 15min.lt – suprasti akimirksniu | RSS by www.15min.lt.
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