IEA revises oil demand growth forecast

Pointing out that the ongoing energy crisis will cause an increase in oil consumption, the IEA revised its forecast for global oil demand for this year and next year upwards.

According to the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) “Petroleum Market Report” for September, demand is expected to increase by 500,000 barrels per day compared to normal conditions, as rising natural gas prices encourage oil use. In this context, the IEA increased its global oil demand forecast by 170,000 barrels for this year and 210 thousand barrels for 2022.

Thus, global oil demand is expected to reach approximately 96 million 300 thousand barrels this year, with an increase of 5 million 500 thousand barrels per day compared to last year. The demand is expected to reach 99 million 600 thousand barrels with an increase of 3 million 300 thousand barrels per day next year and return to the levels before the new type of coronavirus (Kovid-19) epidemic.

According to the report, global oil demand, which declined to 90 million 800 thousand barrels per day in 2020, when the epidemic emerged, was at the level of 99 million 500 thousand barrels in 2019.

While the Asia-Pacific Region is expected to lead the oil demand with 35 million 782 thousand barrels per day this year, it is estimated that this region will be followed by America with 30 million 211 thousand barrels and Europe with 13 million 657 thousand barrels. Next year, as the Asia Pacific Region strengthens its position, this ranking is not expected to change.


According to the report, global oil production amounted to 95 million 990 thousand barrels per day, with a decrease of 260 thousand barrels compared to the previous month. The main factor in the said decline was the interruption of production in the USA, the world’s largest oil producer, due to Hurricane Ida, which was effective at the end of August.

The daily crude oil production of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) rose to 27 million 150 thousand barrels in September with an increase of approximately 340 thousand barrels compared to the previous month. During this period, non-conventional OPEC production, other than crude oil, was recorded as 5 million 320 thousand barrels per day. Thus, OPEC’s total oil production was 32 million 470 thousand barrels per day last month.

The daily oil production of non-OPEC countries, on the other hand, decreased by 600 thousand barrels compared to the previous month and became 63 million 520 thousand barrels.

According to the report, the upward trend in global oil supply resumed as the OPEC group, which consists of OPEC and non-OPEC countries, continued to ease production cuts, production in the USA started to recover after Hurricane Ida, and maintenance and repair work at the facilities decreased. Accordingly, with the increase in production by the OPEC group, an increase of approximately 2 million 700 thousand barrels per day is expected in the global oil supply from September to the end of the year.


Source: bigpara- GÜNDEM by

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