The International Air Transport Association has changed its forecast for airlines’ losses this year, from $ 48 billion to $ 75-95 billion. Watch the video
International Airlines Organization IATA has released a new analysis that strengthens the aviation industry’s negative forecasts for 2021. An earlier analysis (November 2020) indicated that airlines would record some recovery in the last quarter of 2021, but has now changed the forecast for airlines’ losses this year, from $ 48 billion to $ 75-95 billion.
According to the organization, the following factors strengthen the assessment:
The start of a faltering year – It is already clear that the first half of the year will be worse than previously expected. The reason governments have tightened travel restrictions in response to newer variants of the corona virus. Forward bookings for the summer (July-August) have now fallen by 78% from the level in February 2019 (the comparison to 2020 is inaccurate due to COVID-19 virus effects).
An optimistic scenario – In the case of an optimistic scenario, travel restrictions will be gradually lifted after the vaccination of vulnerable populations in developed economies, but only to allow for ‘lukewarm’ demand during the summer travel season in the Northern Hemisphere. In this case, demand this year will be about 38% from 2019. Levels will lose $ 75 billion during the year. But losses in the last quarter will improve significantly compared to the first quarter.
Pessimistic scenario: This scenario will result in a $ 95 billion loss for airlines during the year. This trend will occur in the event that governments maintain significant travel restrictions during the travel season in the northern region in the summer. In this case, the demand in 2021 will be only 33% of the levels in 2019.
“As governments tighten border closures, 2021 is going to be a much tougher year than expected in the past. In our best case scenario, airlines will lose $ 75 billion this year, but it could also be $ 95 billion. A functioning aviation industry could ultimately spur economic recovery from the Corona crisis. “If governments are unable to open their borders, we will need them to open the wallet with financial help to maintain the survival of the airlines,” he said. Alexander de Juniac (Alexandre de Juniac), CEO of IATA.
According to the IATA organization, it is essential that governments and the aviation industry be ready to restart flights as soon as governments reopen their borders. Three initiatives are critical:
planning Preparing the industry to restart safely after a year or more of disruptions will require careful planning and months of preparation. Governments can ensure that airlines are prepared to reconnect people and economies through preparatory work and programs that will allow for orderly and timely restarting.
“Britain is a good example. Earlier this week the government outlined a reopening plan based on improving the morbidity situation. This gives airlines a framework for re-planning, even if it needs to be adapted to changes. “Other governments need to pay attention to the best way to work with the industry,” De Juniac said.
Health certificates– It turns out that vaccines and tests will play a role in the crisis as the economy recovers, including travel. The card IATA Travel Pass Will allow travelers to securely control their health data and share it with relevant authorities. A growing list of airlines – including Air New Zealand, Copa Airlines, Etihad Airways, Emirates, Qatar Airways, Malaysia Airlines, Rwanda Air and Singapore Airlines – have performed or are committed to piloting IATA Travel Pass.
“Efficient digital management of health certificates is essential for reactivation. Manual processes will not be able to handle large volumes at the beginning of recovery. Digital solutions must be secure, work with existing systems, align with global standards and respect the privacy of passengers. The IATA Travel app will help set the very high standard for managing health certificates, protecting against fraud and will enable a process of comfortable travel, ”added De Jonyak.
Global standards – As vaccination programs and testing capabilities expand, two developments have become critical – global standards for testing and vaccination registration; And a plan to absorb the names of the vaccinated.
“Speed is critical. Counterfeit COVID-19 test results are already proving to be a problem. As vaccination programs intensify governments are using different digital standards to document the vaccinated. These will not be the conditions necessary for global scale restructuring when governments open their borders. The World Health Organization, ICAO and the OECD are working on the standards, but every day without them means that the challenge is growing, ”de Juniac concluded.An abbreviated address for this article: https://www.ias.co.il?p=114567
Source: IAS by www.ias.co.il.
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