How many votes is Giuseppe Conte really worth

How much is Conte worth? The question re-emerges every time political tensions arise, if not a real government crisis. On the other hand, the electoral consent potential of the Prime Minister is a decisive variable that helps us to read the moves of Italian political actors in this phase. If we went to early elections, it would be difficult to imagine a scenario that does not include Conte in the front line – as prime minister candidate or coalition leader, or as leader of the 5 Star Movement or at the helm of one’s own political entity, that “count list” which we cyclically return to talk about. But even if the prospect of early voting remains only one of the many hypotheses, having elements on the possible electoral weight of the premier means having a key that helps us understand who among Renzi, Conte, Di Maio, Zingaretti has the most to lose in the current scenario.

The indicator of “trust” or “satisfaction” is a first starting point. Trust in a political leader does not automatically translate into votes, we know this well. But in a certain sense it delimits the perimeter of possible consensus. In the current phase, despite a declining trend in recent months, Giuseppe Conte is generally considered the most popular Italian leader, or among the most popular: the most recent available Ipsos survey assigns him a 57% approval rating, much higher than those follows him in the standings (Roberto Speranza at 36%, Giorgia Meloni at 34%, Matteo Salvini at 31%). The same podium has Ixé, with Conte at 54%. Emg instead photographed the overtaking of the leader of the Brothers of Italy starting from November, with Meloni at 40% and Conte at 38%. So far the strictly personal dimension of the Prime Minister’s popularity, also confirmed by the “face to face” surveyed by Ipsos just this week: between Conte and Renzi, 55% of respondents prefer Conte and only 10% Renzi, between Conte and Salvini the figure is 51-27.

Instead, it has a completely different color the evaluation of the electoral potential of a “Conte list”. Many polling institutes had tested it in June last year, when it had begun to be talked about with insistence. YouTrend for Sky TG24 estimated a “Conte list” at 14.3%, with about two thirds of the M5S voters interested in taking it into consideration for the vote, one third of the Pd and center left voters and also one sixth of the center-right sympathizers. More recently, after the summer and with the first signs of the second wave of the pandemic, the electoral strength of a Contian party seemed to be tarnished: YouTrend for Agi in October estimated it at 11.5%, a pool coming almost entirely from Pd and 5 Star Movement.

In fact, the weight of Conte’s consensus should also be read in another perspective: not only does it matter how much his party would be worth in the abstract (always remembering that we are talking about a theoretical exercise!), But above all how much electoral added value it would be able to confer on a hypothetical “yellow and red” coalition between the Democratic Party and M5S.

Lorenzo Pregliasco, YouTrend

Source: Rss l'Espresso by

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