Government incentives and fears of inflation: a terrible spin in the housing market

By the end of this year, there may be 150,000 transactions in the housing market, according to Duna House’s estimate of the number of sale and purchase transactions of residential real estate. The October data still show a 3% increase compared to the summer months!

The Duna House published the Monthly Transaction Number Estimate (DH-TB) and the mortgage loan forecast, according to which in October 2021, 11,526 real estate sales and transactions took place nationwide, and a HUF 107 billion residential mortgage loan was realized.

After a recovery in early autumn, there was a minimal decline in the real estate market in October. Duna House estimates that 11,526 transactions were realized in the last month, which is lower than in the same period of the previous years, but still shows a 3% increase over the summer months. Year-on-year, the increase is 17% compared to last year, while the result is on the order of magnitude of 2019, the period before the coronavirus. Expecting at least similar activity, Duna House estimates that the amount of transactions completed this year will exceed 150,000.

The volume of the residential mortgage market fell back to the level of May. According to the estimate of Duna House Finances, a HUF 107 billion mortgage loan was realized in Hungary in October. Although this is a decrease compared to the record data of the previous months, it forecasts a value 31% higher than in the same period last year. Thus, since March, the market has continued to exceed the 100 billion mark every month, and by the end of 2021 it may decide further peaks thanks to the potential of new green credit.

The table below shows the monthly transaction volumes estimated by Duna House for the current month.

DH-TB methodology: The most important indicator of real estate market development at any given time is the annual number of sale and purchase transactions. DHTB is an estimate issued by Duna House (DH) that provides mid-year, approximate data. The estimate is based on the monthly number of real estate transactions brokered by DH and DH’s estimated market share. The following indicators are used to estimate DH’s current monthly market share: 1. Data published by the CSO on transactions between individuals. Since the CSO publishes with a delay of several months, it is possible to adjust the market share retrospectively, which also clarifies the current estimate. Attention! From 2016, with the recovery of the newly built market, pre-contracted housing purchases will appear in the CSO’s statistics only with a delay of several months, even 1-2 years, after the imposition of the property acquisition tax, so there may be anomalies in the interpretation of transaction numbers. 2. Number of Energy Certificates issued. 3. Subjective evaluation based on other management information from the Duna House group of companies.

Additional notes:

Incidentally, DH-TB’s data are not suitable for estimating the volume of transactions mediated by the Duna House network, nor are they suitable for estimating the business results of the Duna House Group or for drawing any relevant conclusions. Mortgage loan forecast: The data provided by Duna House Hitelcentruma can be used primarily for rapid trend forecasting, the Magyar Nemzeti Bank publishes the actual data of the period 2 months ago at the beginning of each month.

Source: Ingatlanhírek by

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