[아시아경제 황준호 기자] As pressure on austerity grows ahead of the first stock market in May, attention is focused on the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting this week. The key is whether or not the Fed’s giant steps (75bps) will be taken to catch soaring inflation.
Heo Jin-wook Samsung SecuritiesA researcher at the Global Macro Team announced on the 1st in the stock market outlook report, “The market is predicting that the possibility of a 75bp hike is low and quantitative tightening (QT) will be officially announced along with a 50bp interest rate hike.”
He said, “Recently, St. Louis Federal Reserve Governor James Bullard has repeatedly insisted on the need for a 75bp increase, and the market has some sense of vigilance,” he said. Therefore, the possibility of a 75bp hike is low.”
But I thought QT would start. It is predicted that the monthly asset reduction will gradually increase to $95 billion (treasury bonds 60 billion, MBS 35 billion) over two to three months from next month. Although he will not comment on the duration of the QT and the final target asset size, researcher Huh observed that “the Fed’s asset size is expected to shrink from 37% of the current GDP to the level of 20% before the pandemic.” This means that over the next three years, the QT will end after the current asset size of $9 trillion is reduced to around $6 trillion in mid-2025.
In the midst of this, he said, the market’s attention should focus on the possibility of a 75bp hike in June next month and the nuances of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. Samsung Securities After raising 50bp each for two consecutive months, the remaining 4 times in the second half are raised by 25bp each. By the end of this year, the overall interest rate is expected to reach 2.5% (based on the upper level).Following this month, next month
Researcher Huh said, ” Samsung Securities “I don’t think the possibility of a 75bp hike is high.”“The consensus within the FOMC is skeptical about a 75bp rate hike”This is because, based on the year-on-year growth rate, it is expected that the March inflation peak will gradually be confirmed.”is next month
Reporter Hwang Jun-ho [email protected]
Source: 아시아경제신문 실시간 속보 by www.asiae.co.kr.
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