Eurocontrol: Recovery of air traffic to levels from 2019 to the end of 2023

A new forecast for the years 2021-2027 of the organization indicates 3 possible scenarios for the recovery of air traffic in Europe. Update and extension to the forecast made in May 2021

Aviation status according to Eurocontrol forecast. freepik

Eurocontrol , (Eurocontrol) The European Air Safety Organization, whose task is to create a uniform system of air control for and from Europe, has published a new forecast for air traffic in Europe for the years 2021-2027. Update and extension to the forecast made in May 2021.

Eurocontrol raises three scenarios for the recovery of air traffic in Europe to levels of 2019. In the optimistic case this may happen by the end of 2023 and in the least encouraging case by 2027.

“Last year we only had five million flights, but this summer was very encouraging, with traffic close to our previous‘ high ’scenario and the expectations of the airlines. As a result, we expect to see about 6.2 million flights this year – still 44% less compared to 2019. We are optimistic about traffic returning to 2019 levels earlier than expected, with the baseline scenario pointing to 9.8 million flights in 2022, about 11% less than 2019. But We need to be aware that there are still significant downside risks that could affect the recovery, ”he said. Brennan training, Director General of Eurocontrol.

Travelers in the Corona Age. Photo Depositphotos

Three possible scenarios:

The optimistic scenario – In case the vaccination campaign continues in Europe and around the world, and will also be effective against variants. This, combined with regional coordination, removal of travel restrictions and an increase in air traffic by mid-2022, including business travel.

The more realistic scenario – In this case the recovery of air traffic to the levels of 2019 will be until the end of 2023. This is the case where the air traffic outside the continent of Europe is recovering more slowly and with business trips that will return to the levels of 2019 only in 2023.

The least optimistic scenario – Takes into account risks such as low immunization rates, the need for booster vaccination due to variants, new closures and the imposition of travel restrictions and an increase in jet fuel prices, which will lead to an increase in flight ticket prices. Air traffic is recovering to 2019 levels only in 2027.

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Source: IAS by

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