Elisabeth Borne, a year at Matignon on the edge of the precipice

POLICY – We have known more generous as a birthday present. For her first candle blown at Matignon, Élisabeth Borne receives this Tuesday, May 16 the unions, still as revolted against this unpopular pension reform and adopted with forceps. A resumption of dialogue in pain like her first year rue de Varenne, where nothing went as planned for the one who intends to embody the left wing of Macronie.

Go back. Monday May 16, 2022, Emmanuel Macron, who left himself several weeks after his re-election, puts an end to the suspense. After seriously considering the option Catherine Vautrin, the Head of State promotes Élisabeth Borne, then Minister of Labour, to Matignon. The beginning of a way of the cross marked by multiple obstacles. Four days later, Friday May 20, the Prime Minister unveiled her first government. A device which offers a full-fledged ministry to Damien Abad, ex-president of the LR group in the National Assembly.

From the ball Abad to the legislative

A prize of war that quickly turns into a cannonball. The next day, Mediapart reveals the accusations of rape against the deputy of Ain. The feminist momentum instilled by her appointment as head of government takes a big hit. Damien Abad will be thanked for the reshuffle in early July, after several weeks of controversy. Added to this are purely political disappointments, linked to disastrous legislative elections from which it emerged weakened.

Not only will Elisabeth Borne not be able to count on an absolute majority at the Palais Bourbon (a handicap whose implications she measures every day), but she is losing key elements of her government system. Appointed minister in charge of ecological transition and territorial cohesion, Amélie de Montchalin, supposed to pilot ecological planning with her colleague in energy transition Agnès Pannier-Runacher, is swept away in Essonne.

A defeat which seems to relegate the ambitions of the executive to ” ecological planning which was for one of his main missions. A promise of which there is not much left a year later, except for a reappearance of the term in the mouth of the head of state during his speech on April 17. Weakened by the sequence, Elisabeth Borne enters directly into the hard of the relative majority.

On July 6, 2022, she renounces seeking the confidence of Parliament during her general policy speech. A first since 1993 and the entry of Pierre Bérégovoy at Matignon which reflects the terrible image of a Prime Minister partially powerless in the face of opposition. The motions of censure, of the Nupes and the RN, are linked. But not enough to waver Élisabeth Borne, who is now only holding on to the refusal of LR deputies to bring down the government (and go through new legislation if necessary).

Its room for maneuver is constantly shrinking. To circumvent opposition, Elisabeth Borne can count on article 49-3, used 10 times in six months. Which is not likely to appease an explosive Palais Bourbon or improve the image of the executive couple, whose popularity continues to crumble each month. The file of pensions, opened at the beginning of January, completes to illustrate its difficulties.

“Almost sacrificial”

Elisabeth Borne makes a choice. Since the unions do not want to hear about an age measure, the negotiations will be done exclusively with Les Républicains. It’s a fail. The intersyndicale displays a united front until the end, while the right-wing deputies are divided, demonstrating the impasse constituted by a strategy entirely based on an agreement with a political party which does not speak with a single voice and which always in opposition. The building collapses and Elisabeth Borne must face the facts, the account is not there. Result: an 11th article 49.3, which ignites the street and feeds the lawsuits in authoritarianism.

Saved by nine small voices on March 20, she narrowly escaped the motion of censure this time. The noose is tightening and the press multiplies the articles imagining the candidates for his succession. Especially men, Bruno Le Maire, Gérald Darmanin, Sébastien Lecornu or the former minister Julien Denormandie in the lead. If some describe her behind the scenes as washed out, she deceives her in the hemicycle, and is impassive in the face of attacks by the rebels or when she refers the centrist Charles de Courson to his past statements.

As the air becomes unbreathable, she does not admit defeat. In April, she does not hesitate to take the opposite view of the Head of State. When he castigated the unions and called for speeding up from China, she claimed “ a period of convalescence “and does not want” rush things “. It must be said that for weeks, it is she who has been on the front line, alone to deal with the laborious communication of her own camp, the cacophony of the right and the crossfire of the Nupes.

A resilience that, for some, explains its longevity. “ I still think that there is no other choice than her at Matignon. She has a solidity, a real courage and she plays collectively. There’s something almost sacrificial about her », decrypts at HuffPost a pillar of the Renaissance group in the National Assembly, who does not see a candidate for the post capable of doing better than her. Whether it is the Minister of the Interior or his colleague from Bercy, whose respective ambitions are no mystery to anyone.

“Macron gives himself time”

« She is combative. Not a single personality from the right can guarantee us all the votes of the majority plus those of 35 LR deputies “, adds our interlocutor. According The worldElisabeth Borne recently invited the Head of State to the“spin” to the end, testifying to an almost sacerdotal conception of his time at Matignon.

For his part, Emmanuel Macron does not spare his Prime Minister, summoned to find appeasement in 100 days and to enlarge a majority as if it were decreed. Even if, publicly, the support is intact. ” Its governments have done a lot in a year. We are moving forward to allow the country to be independent and fairer. At my side, Elisabeth Borne acts with strength, determination and courage,” he greeted this Monday, May 15 during his interview with TF1.

At the same time, the head of state is making frequent trips and increasing the number of interviews, even if it means giving the impression of leaving only a residual space for his head of government. But for how much longer? “Emmanuel Macron is giving himself time until July 14. He is aware that the government is weak, but that allows him to exist. She wants a reshuffle as soon as possible, he refuses it, ” analyzes a Renaissance strategist. The end of the ordeal is therefore not for tomorrow.

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