Elections 2021 | Babiš’s era is ending, he has sunk his potential allies. Zeman has nothing to play for

One thing you can trust Babiš is: He did not expect such an election result. However, few expected such a fundamental change, and public opinion agencies failed again. The results were affected by higher turnout and a high drop in voter turnout. However, the boss arranged YES himself. If he won a few percent of the vote in the end, he did so at the expense of the only entities that allowed government cooperation with him.

What signals did this year’s key elections send to the Chamber of Deputies and how did the comparison with the last elections turn out? In 2017, YES won in all regions, including Prague, this year it finished second behind the TOTAL block not only in the number of votes, but also in the winning regions. YES succeeded in six regions, while the TOTAL coalition in eight.

Success TOTAL

All pre-election polls favored the YES movement. Babiš’s victory was taken as a done deal and estimates only differed by how much. Realistic scenarios calculated as much as possible whether he would be able to form a government majority if his allies failed. But perhaps no one expected that everyone, with the exception of the SPD, would fail – the CSSD, the KSCM and the reserve “béčko” ANO Přísaha, which paradoxically deprived Babiš of decisive votes.

The election was unexpectedly won by the TOTAL opposition bloc, which was not perceived by its voters as a “fraud”, as Babiš and Zeman reported, but as a real chance for change. The results speak for themselves. The ODS-KDU-ČSL-TOP09 three-party coalition as a whole won 1.46 million votes, which is 560,000 more than in the last election.

All three parties have also improved their seats – from a total of 39 to 71 in this year’s elections. Petr Fiala repulsed the objections and parts of the skeptics within his own ranks, who, however, did not offer a more promising alternative, and strengthened his position.

Pirates beyond expectations

The second Opposition Bloc of Pirates-STAN also succeeded, but less than expected, and than the polls predicted. The two-party coalition was dramatically paid for by the pirates, who would certainly have succeeded in a single election better than with the current four deputies.

There are several reasons for the failure of pirates and the significant success of STAN. The mayors are more serious and compact with the voters of the double block than the disparate pirate base with numerous fads, which discouraged some voters. The pirates were not able to repel the attacks of competitors, especially Babiš’s circuit, which often did not correspond to the coalition program of the double block.

The unpredictability of widely opinion-stricken pirates, who massacre each other at an open pirate forum, is evidenced by the statement of one of the outgoing deputies, Ondřej Profant. He questions the coalition with the ODS and wants to negotiate it.

Meanwhile, Ivan Bartoš signed a memorandum with the other chairmen of the five parties of both blocs, asking President Zeman to entrust the formation of the government to Petr Fiala. So the pirates will probably still have to ask themselves if they want to participate in this majority coalition at all, which could work without them with 104 votes.

YES destroyed the allies

Although the YES movement managed to drag another part of the CSSD and KSCM electorate at the end of the campaign, it was supported by 42,000 fewer voters with a higher turnout than in the last election. Babiš focused too much on demonizing pirates and underestimated that his main rival was elsewhere.

Babiš’s team probably bet on the post-election split of the bloc TOGETHER, as he was aware of the risk of an alliance with Okamura and the Communists, while the CSSD was heading irresistibly outside the Chamber. However, there is no doubt that if he had no choice and it was not possible otherwise, he would also join the Martians, as Jiří Paroubek announced in his time.

Boss YES plays for everything. It will undoubtedly be re-extradited by the Chamber of Deputies to prosecute the Stork’s Nest case, and the evidence against it is growing. He has other problems on his neck around suspicious transactions that are already being dealt with by the US authorities. Deagrofertization of the state will also affect the financial administration, the financial analytical department and the control over subsidies. Problems are also accumulating around the over-indebted Agrofert, which is losing political coverage in the state administration.

KSČM on the dustbin of history

Nevertheless, it is necessary to “thank” Babiš for one thing. By consistently luxating even the communist voters, he sent the KSČM definitively to the dustbin of history. The words of the leader of the Stalinist wing, Josef Skála, were fulfilled that Filip’s collaboration with the oligarch for a couple of functional limousines, contrary to the Marxist teachings of the class struggle, was a path to hell.

The unteachable opportunist Vojtech Filip, who volunteered to continue government cooperation with the YES movement before the election, withdrew the whole party to hell, where his comrades will now start settling accounts. And they can do that.

Agent Falmer did an extraordinary job. The KSČM lost 200,000 voters against the last election, more than half, and crowned the largest loser of all parliamentary parties with a gain of 3.6 percent of the vote. Filip seemed surrendered in the election debates, as if he knew. He could not address radical Marxist voters, not even from his own party, and his maneuvering with the postponement of the KSČM election only prolonged her agony.

Hamáček’s series of debacles

Jan Hamáček, who also bet everything on the continuation of the CSSD government with the YES movement and did not take into account that this mesaliance is the source of its decline, turned out only slightly better. Against the last election, it lost a third of the voters by 4.65 percent of the vote, ending a series of debacles after the municipal, European, regional and senate elections, where the CSSD significantly vacated its position everywhere.

Against all customs, Hamáček held the prosecuted prime minister for four years in the government, and until the last moment he covered his back in his scandals and at the international level. Babiš repaid him by dragging other voters and the popular government agenda. The head of the CSSD will leave his successors with a divided party burdened with hundreds of millions of debts. “Dense Two” Maláčová-Stropnický will only register as a tragicomic duo, assisting in Hamáček’s fall.

Zeman is on the move

Contrary to the original expectations, another populist and Babiš’s potential ally Okamura also lost the voters. This year, despite a massive campaign, he reached 26,000 fewer than in 2017. It certainly did not occur to him that he would end up below 10 percent, and blamed competing so-called “patriotic” entities for the outage. At the very end of the campaign, however, YES took the most percentage by betting on an artificial problem with migration in our conditions.

It is the turn of President Miloš Zeman, whose dream group ANO-ČSSD-KSČM-SPD lost the election. If he doesn’t want to cheat, he has no cards in his hand. It will now be clear whether he will be willing to respect the result of the democratic elections or whether he will escalate the constitutional crisis with the toxic duo Mynář-Nejedlý behind his back.

Miroslav Kalousek and Marek Stoniš on the election resultsVIDEO Redakce Blesk

Source: Reflex.cz by www.reflex.cz.

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